South America Calling

Brazil Second-Crop Corn Forecasts Rise

Brazilian second-crop corn estimates rose this week amid reports of excellent crop development and adjustments to area forecasts.

The Agriculture Ministry raised its figure 1.5 million metric tons (mmt) to 49.4 mmt, making it 2% higher than last year, principally on a 2.7% increase in its area number.

Meanwhile, AgRural, a local farm consultancy, raised its figure by 2 mmt to 51 mmt after the extension of autumn rains into May has allowed crops to attain high yield potential.

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As a large portion of the crop was planted late because of soy crop delays, farmers had been concerned that crops would suffer in the dry Brazilian autumn. That simply hasn't happened.

In Mato Grosso, rains stopped in the second half of May, but crops nearly all look good. In northern reaches of the state, yields are seen 10% higher than the excellent 2013-14 crop, said AgRural.

In the south, too, crops look good, although the perennial threat of frost remains.

In Parana, average yields of 92 bushels per acre are forecast, reaching as high as 120 bpa in the west of the state, said AgRural.

Bumper output will allow Brazil to comfortably supply 20 mmt or more of corn in exports during the 2015-16 season.

The forecasts confound expectations that Brazilian corn production would fall in 2015-16 due to the poor price scenario.

(AG)

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