Market Matters Blog

Informa Pegs Corn Yield at 165 BPA, Soybeans at 44.5 BPA

OMAHA (DTN) -- Private analytical firm Informa Economics said U.S. farmers have the potential to produce a 13.7 billion bushel corn crop and a 3.7 bb soybean crop this year.

The national average corn yield is forecast at 165 bushels per acre, 1.6 bpa above its previous estimate, and a soybean yield of 44.5 bpa, even with its last forecast. Both are slightly below USDA's estimates.

Informa adjusted USDA's acreage figures using data from its own survey of farmers. It thinks farmers planted corn on 91.39 million acres with harvested acres projected at 83.24 ma.

The corn harvested acreage estimate is 600,000 less than USDA's with the difference stemming from a 250,000 acre reduction in planting and 350,000 acres abandoned due to excessive moisture.

"Informa said Thursday that they expect the 2014 U.S. corn crop to total 13.73 bb, down 1.4% from 2013, but still large enough to expect increased supplies in 2014-15," DTN analyst Todd Hultman said. "Their estimate is reasonable, given USDA's estimate of 91.6 million planted acres of corn and suggests a yield of 165 bpa."

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Farmers are likely to harvest 83.23 ma of soybeans, Informa said, 830,000 less than USDA's June estimate with the reductions coming fewer planted and harvested acres in from Ohio, Michigan, Louisiana, Illinois, and South Dakota. Informa sees abandonment increasing in Minnesota, Iowa and North Dakota.

"Informa's estimate of 3.7 billion bushels is slightly below my estimate of 3.8 billion bushels, but it is too early to take any slight differences seriously," Hultman said. "The clear point is that outlooks for both corn and soybeans are bearish this year, but that was already known before Informa's estimates.

USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board will release its initial projections of U.S. production in its next report on July 11 at 11 a.m. CT. As Informa and Hultman pointed out, these early estimates could readily change as growing conditions improve or worsen.

USDA will also update supply and demand tables in its upcoming report to include the recent Grain Stocks report, which indicated larger corn and soybean supplies on hand than previously thought.

Informa also sees sorghum production exceeding last year's production by 39 mb, totaling 428 mb. Although acreage has decreased, yield prospect are likely to improve. Informa estimates yield at 66.9 bpa, up 7.3 bpa from last year.

Informa also released its Crop Production report for the wheat complex. USDA will update its winter wheat production and issue its first spring wheat production numbers in its next report.

"Informa's estimate of U.S. winter wheat production was reduced to 1.37 b bu, slightly below USDA's estimate of 1.38 bb, but not a significant change," Hultman said.

Informa forecast spring wheat production at 534 million bushels with an average yield of 43.2 bpa.

The firm's global forecasts included a few changes. Informa increased Brazilian corn production to 76.5 million metric tons, which is 2.5 mmt above USDA's estimate and "suggests that USDA may increase its world corn production estimate in the July 11 WASDE report."

Informa also reduced its India wheat production forecast to 99 mmt, which is 3 mmt higher than USDA's June estimate. Argentina wheat production was boosted from 13 mmt to 13.75 mmt, which is above USDA's estimate of 12.5 mmt.

"Overall, the outlook for world wheat is bearish and nothing in Thursday’s Informa numbers changed that," Hultman said. "I see nothing here to change the markets’ already bearish outlooks for corn, soybeans, and wheat."

(CZ/SK)

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