Market Matters Blog

Informa Pegs Corn Yield at 165 BPA, Soybeans at 44.5 BPA

OMAHA (DTN) -- Private analytical firm Informa Economics said U.S. farmers have the potential to produce a 13.7 billion bushel corn crop and a 3.7 bb soybean crop this year.

The national average corn yield is forecast at 165 bushels per acre, 1.6 bpa above its previous estimate, and a soybean yield of 44.5 bpa, even with its last forecast. Both are slightly below USDA's estimates.

Informa adjusted USDA's acreage figures using data from its own survey of farmers. It thinks farmers planted corn on 91.39 million acres with harvested acres projected at 83.24 ma.

The corn harvested acreage estimate is 600,000 less than USDA's with the difference stemming from a 250,000 acre reduction in planting and 350,000 acres abandoned due to excessive moisture.

"Informa said Thursday that they expect the 2014 U.S. corn crop to total 13.73 bb, down 1.4% from 2013, but still large enough to expect increased supplies in 2014-15," DTN analyst Todd Hultman said. "Their estimate is reasonable, given USDA's estimate of 91.6 million planted acres of corn and suggests a yield of 165 bpa."

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Farmers are likely to harvest 83.23 ma of soybeans, Informa said, 830,000 less than USDA's June estimate with the reductions coming fewer planted and harvested acres in from Ohio, Michigan, Louisiana, Illinois, and South Dakota. Informa sees abandonment increasing in Minnesota, Iowa and North Dakota.

"Informa's estimate of 3.7 billion bushels is slightly below my estimate of 3.8 billion bushels, but it is too early to take any slight differences seriously," Hultman said. "The clear point is that outlooks for both corn and soybeans are bearish this year, but that was already known before Informa's estimates.

USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board will release its initial projections of U.S. production in its next report on July 11 at 11 a.m. CT. As Informa and Hultman pointed out, these early estimates could readily change as growing conditions improve or worsen.

USDA will also update supply and demand tables in its upcoming report to include the recent Grain Stocks report, which indicated larger corn and soybean supplies on hand than previously thought.

Informa also sees sorghum production exceeding last year's production by 39 mb, totaling 428 mb. Although acreage has decreased, yield prospect are likely to improve. Informa estimates yield at 66.9 bpa, up 7.3 bpa from last year.

Informa also released its Crop Production report for the wheat complex. USDA will update its winter wheat production and issue its first spring wheat production numbers in its next report.

"Informa's estimate of U.S. winter wheat production was reduced to 1.37 b bu, slightly below USDA's estimate of 1.38 bb, but not a significant change," Hultman said.

Informa forecast spring wheat production at 534 million bushels with an average yield of 43.2 bpa.

The firm's global forecasts included a few changes. Informa increased Brazilian corn production to 76.5 million metric tons, which is 2.5 mmt above USDA's estimate and "suggests that USDA may increase its world corn production estimate in the July 11 WASDE report."

Informa also reduced its India wheat production forecast to 99 mmt, which is 3 mmt higher than USDA's June estimate. Argentina wheat production was boosted from 13 mmt to 13.75 mmt, which is above USDA's estimate of 12.5 mmt.

"Overall, the outlook for world wheat is bearish and nothing in Thursday’s Informa numbers changed that," Hultman said. "I see nothing here to change the markets’ already bearish outlooks for corn, soybeans, and wheat."


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andrew mohlman
7/18/2014 | 8:39 AM CDT
shh raymond it is always a record would like it cheap on farmers backs
Raymond Simpkins
7/16/2014 | 6:50 AM CDT
just wanted to let Informa know our POTENTIAL record yields were fading fast.With no rain for almost a month and cold temps, crops have come to a stand still.
Raymond Simpkins
7/8/2014 | 12:00 PM CDT
I like the word POTENTIAL they all use.Any seed company will tell you their seed has the POTENTIAL to produce record yields when it is still in the bag.Well it has to go along way with all elements being near perfect to produce record yields.I don't know how Informa or anyone else can know what the crops are like without driving coast to coast and looking.I have seen some very poor crops in northeast Ohio this week.Small beans and yellow uneven corn.There are some very nice crops too always are,but USDA needs to figure in all the unplanted acres also.On a return trip from Texas this weekend alot of crops under water along the Mississippi and corn was no bigger in Ill. than here in Mi.
Matt & Cindy Bauer
7/8/2014 | 7:28 AM CDT
looks real good from manson iowa to alma Kansas. would have to have lot of bad weather to hurt it
James Zeeb
7/7/2014 | 12:45 PM CDT
I love today's Bloomberg quote noting that an "avalanche" of grain will be coming to harvest this fall. I think that the avalanche may occur slightly before harvest as producers ship out the last inventory of the 2013 crop, probably beginning in August. I believe that there is still a lot of 2013 crop stored. Due to the old crop inventory, and the early planted 2014 crop, it may be that harvest lows will be put in early, and markets may rise throughout the fall and into early winter.
andrew mohlman
7/7/2014 | 8:46 AM CDT
how would traders make money if they did not manipulate the market. Never say they were wrong always right they all run to the same know truth.hold it back from will be too late when truth told.china needs cheaper grains? traders threat too americas security.wasting are resources always plenty not real. importing beans? would hate to pay a farmer when he is right that is messed up.the under pricing needs to stop.addicted to stealing from ranchers or farmers sad state.
7/6/2014 | 8:18 PM CDT
We can only hope for a early frost in central Mn, crops are a disaster, thousands of acres not planted, every low area gone from lakes in the fields, the USDA markets are down thanks to the corrupt reports from that United States Dictatorship of Agriculture. How times change when in 2012 this area made up for numerous states during the drought according to the USDA, now somehow this area does not count in their lies and reports. There was another comment made by another DTN subscriber saying high school kids are doing the numbers, I wish they were, as they would be more honest than the highly trained scam artists that now fudge false and dishonest reports, market changing "estimates" and surprises. What a joke the CBOT has become.
7/4/2014 | 9:10 AM CDT
Informa and Hultman don't want to see anything that might be bullish. Like too much rain makes poor stands, poor population, disease , vomitoxin , low test weight and poor quality in corn and wheat. Last winter took its toll on winter wheat. Persistent rains have raised the levels of vom 20 percent in southern areas in wheat. Corn and soybeans were planted one month late and El Nino weather pattern points to colder than normal for the next 90 days and to a frost in September.