Market Matters Blog
Cost of Carry on the Neutral-Bearish Border
Many farmers are putting their corn in the bin this harvest season, so DTN decided to start tracking the cost of carry on a daily basis, which you can find on Ag News page 19. It'll find a home here, in my blog, every once in a while. Knowing the cost of carry can help farmers decide if the market's paying them to keep their corn in the bin.
Corn's cost of carry has weakened over the past week, DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom said.
"The cost of carry in corn remains borderline neutral to bearish. This continues to indicate that harvest, with its better than expected production, is offsetting stronger demand," he said. "Soybeans have seen its long-term inverse (negative cost of carry) weaken slightly due to similar projections of better than expected production. However, the nearby November to January remains well supported by strong short-term demand."
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"So, how does this cost of carry thing work?" you ask. Here are the basics, followed with a table showing the cost of carry based on how the markets closed last Friday.
Full commercial carry is the total cost of storage and interest to hold grain in commercial storage. For the corn and soybean table, DTN uses a daily storage rate of 0.00165 cents per bushel (roughly 5 cents per month) and an annual interest rate of 3.1% (this provided by one of the largest commercial grain hedging firms in the industry).
The percent of commercial carry (% FCC) divides last daily price in futures spreads by full commercial carry. The higher the percent of full commercial carry a spread reflects, the more bearish the market's view of supply and demand. Conversely, a lower percent reflects a more bullish view of fundamentals. A negative reading occurs when spreads are inverted, or in other words, when the nearby futures contract is higher priced than the deferred contract. This relationship represents a bullish supply and demand situation, with the larger the negative number the more bullish fundamentals are.
Newsom tells me that 67%, or when the spread is about 2/3 of the cost of full commercial carry, the market's paying farmers to keep their grain in their on-farm storage.
CORN
FULL | SPREAD | ||||
CONTRACT | SETTLE | SPREAD | CARRY | AS % FCC | |
@CZ13 | Dec 13 | 427.25 | |||
@CH14 | Mar 14 | 437.50 | 10.25 | 18.19 | 56% |
@CK14 | May 14 | 445.75 | 8.25 | 12.37 | 67% |
@CN14 | Jul 14 | 452.25 | 6.50 | 12.41 | 52% |
@CU14 | Sep 14 | 458.75 | 6.50 | 12.65 | 51% |
SOYBEANS
FULL | SPREAD | ||||
CONTRACT | SETTLE | SPREAD | CARRY | AS % FCC | |
@SX13 | Nov 13 | 1266.00 | |||
@SF14 | Jan 14 | 1251.50 | -14.50 | 16.47 | -88% |
@SH14 | Mar 14 | 1237.00 | -14.50 | 16.08 | -90% |
@SK14 | May 14 | 1228.50 | -8.50 | 16.55 | -51% |
@SN14 | Jul 14 | 1224.50 | -4.00 | 16.47 | -24% |
@SQ14 | Aug 14 | 1211.75 | -12.75 | 8.35 | -153% |
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