Market Matters Blog

Private analytical firm Informa Economics increased its crop projections for Brazil while holding its estimates for Argentina steady.

Informa pegged Brazil corn production at 71.6 million metric tons, a 1.3 mmt increase from its previous forecast. Even if the upwardly-revised estimate is realized, the crop will still be 1.4 mmt below last year's output.

On soybeans, Informa boosted its Brazilian estimate to 84.5 mmt, a 500,000 mt jump. Brazil's harvest was 28% complete.

After receiving below-normal rains from early January to late February, Argentina's precipitation has returned to near-normal levels, Informa reports, and that's why it kept its corn forecast at 25 mmt.

Informa expects Argentina will produce 51 mmt, also unchanged from last month, noting that rains in late February stabilized yields, given that the majority of beans there are flowering and filling.

How does that compare to USDA? USDA's estimate is higher on Brazilian corn production at 72.5 mmt and lower on soybean production at 83.5 mmt.

As for Argentina, USDA is 2 mmt higher than Informa on soybeans and corn at 53 mmt and 27 mmt, respectively.

Another note of interest from Informa: Ukraine's corn production forecast was cut to 29.5 mmt, which is still 8.6 mmt larger than last year but down 500,000 mt from last month. Informa credits a 100,000 hectare decline in its projected acreage estimate to 4.5 million hectares.