Canada Markets

Canada's trade deficit with the world widened to $3.189 billion in June, up from $1.3 billion reported in May which was the narrowest deficit reported in five months. Imports rose faster than exports over the month, with the import of vehicles and parts leading the move. Exports reported for the farm, fishing and intermediate food products category fell by 14% to $3.509 billion, the lowest in four months but still up 7% from June 2019.

Here we look at miscellaneous trade data as it relates to the grains and products.

Canada exported 338,481 metric tons (mt) of lentils in June, the second-largest monthly shipments this crop year and the third consecutive month that volumes have been elevated above 300,000 mt. This is the largest June volume shipped in data checked going back 10 years, with India the largest buyer, with 52.9% of the volume shipped to this nation. Cumulative shipments are 38.9% higher than the same period last crop year and 30.5% higher than the 5-year average. Cumulative exports of 2.561 million metric tons (mmt) are already ahead of AAFC's July estimate of 2.4 mmt, which was revised 200,000 mt higher in July and has reached a record volume in the first 11 months of the crop year.

Dry pea exports totaled 300,199 mt in June, with 82% of this volume shipped to China. This is the lowest volume shipped in three months, while cumulative shipments are 21.5% higher than the 2018-19 crop year and 19.2% higher than the 5-year average. Cumulative shipments total 3.609 mmt, having reached 98.9% of the 3.7 mmt forecast released by AAFC in July, a forecast that was also revised 50,000 mt higher in July. Depending on July volumes, exports will likely fall second to the record 3.944 mmt exported in 2016-17.

June chickpea exports totaled 6,675 mt, up from the previous month but still the third-lowest volume shipped this crop year. Cumulative exports are 68% of 2018-19 and 85% of the 5-year average, while having reached 90.6% of the current AAFC forecast of 105,000 mt, which was reduced by 20,000 mt in July.

Canary seed exports totaled 11,519 mt in June, the lowest in three months. Cumulative exports over 11 months are 2.8% higher than 2018-19 and 6% higher than the 5-year average. Cumulative exports total 150,583 mt, having reached 95.3% of the current AAFC forecast of 158,000 mt, similar to 2018-19.

Canada's corn exports remained elevated for a second month at 165,561 mt, with 86% of this volume shipped to western Europe, including Netherlands, Ireland, Spain and the United Kingdom. Cumulative exports total 533,891 mt, which represents 34.6% of the same period in 2018-19 and 48% of the 5-year average. At the same time, exports have reached 82% of the forecast set by AAFC, which was revised 300,000 mt higher in July to 650,000 mt and on track to reach this forecast.

Increased exports of corn are being driven by increased imports from the U.S. Imports were down sharply to 2,245 mt in June, well below the 283,954 mt imported in May. Cumulative imports total 1.351 mmt, still well below the 1.7 mmt forecast released by AAFC in July, which was revised 200,000 mt higher.

Mustard exports totaled 9,865 mt in June, the third-highest monthly shipments this crop year. Cumulative exports are reported at 102,780 mt, which is 92.2% of the volume shipped in 2018-19 and 92.8% of the five-year average. Exports are only slightly behind the pace to reach the current AAFC forecast of 115,000 mt.

Flaxseed exports were reported at 51,049 mt exported in June, down from the previous month but still the third-highest monthly volume shipped this crop year. Belgium was the largest buyer this month, with China's volume falling sharply from the previous month. Cumulative exports are reported at 308,339 mt, 69.6% of the 2018-19 pace and 59% of the 5-year average. Cumulative exports have reached 88.1% of the current AAFC forecast of 350,000 mt, while on track to reach this volume.

Canada's soybean exports totaled 240,604 mt in June, the highest volume shipped in five months, with Iran the largest buyer, followed by Japan. A minimal volume of 25,157 mt was shipped to China, while cumulative shipments to this country total 151,411 mt, down 95.2% from the same period in 2018-19. Cumulative exports total 69.6% of the same period in 2018-19, while 77% of the 5-year average. Cumulative exports at 3.178 mmt represent 73.9% of the current AAFC forecast of 4.3 mmt, well behind the pace needed to reach this forecast with two months of data left to come.

Canola oil exports were reported at 253,125 mt in June, the lowest volume shipped in four months. Cumulative exports total 3.116 mmt, 8.2% higher than the same period last crop year and 8.9% higher than the 3-year average.

Movement of canola meal totaled 417,444 mt, also the lowest volume shipped in four months. Cumulative exports of 4.501 mmt are 7% higher than the same period last crop year and 6.8% higher than the 3-year average.

Canada's ethanol imports totaled 104 million liters in June, the highest volume seen in three months and down only 2.8% from the same month in 2019. Imports over the January through June period total 517 million liters, down 3.7% from the same period in 2019 and down 10.1% from the 3-year average.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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