Canada Markets

Canola Cash Basis Compared to Average

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The blue bars represent the average spot canola basis as well as the average calculated for the September through November delivery periods, as compared to the three-year average for this period (brown bars). (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

The average Prairie canola basis, based on accessible internet bids, is unchanged from the end of last week at $31.17/metric ton under the November. One Prairie crusher remains the most aggressive at $5 under for the delivery in the first half of August, while eastern Prairie elevators are preparing for harvest, with a number of points showing the weakest basis levels on the Prairies ranging as wide as $49/mt under the November.

The spot basis remains weaker than the $27.52/mt under calculated this time last year and the three-year average of $28.30/mt. While uncertainty remains surrounding production prospects given the hot and dry conditions faced in many areas of the Prairie Provinces, including some all-time heat records realized in some areas over the past few days, futures are doing the work while basis remains relatively unchanged from August delivery to delivery in the month of November.

Cash trade on the west coast also reflects a lack of urgency to meet export opportunities. Last week's $5/mt weakening in the Vancouver cash basis to $25/mt over the November, as reported by the ICE Exchange, puts the cash trade at exactly the same basis as reported on the same date in 2017, while is also $5/mt weaker than the three-year average.

The Canadian Grain Commission's Week 1 and Week 2 statistics will be released later this week, while it is expected that movement could be light as buyers wait for less-expensive new crop. The real proof will come from the combine monitors as crop comes off, which bears watching.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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(CZ)

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