Canada Markets

2017/18 Export Projections Based on the Week 40 Pace

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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Based on the historical pace of exports reported by the Canadian Grain Commission as of week 40, crops such as wheat, oats and barley are set to exceed current export estimates released by AAFC in April, flax is poised to come close to AAFC's current export estimate while other crops may fall short. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

As of week 40, or the week ending May 6, Canada's cumulative licensed wheat exports (excluding durum) totaled 12.140 million metric tons, 15% higher than the same period last crop year and 3.3% higher than the five-year average. Over the past five crop years (2012/13 to 2016/17) an average of 69% of total exports were realized as of week 40, or the first 77% of the crop year, an average pace that would project to crop year exports of 17.6 mmt, higher than the current Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada estimate of 17.2 mmt, released on April 23. Note that updated supply and demand tables may be released in the next week and could include an upward revision in the wheat export forecast.

Over the same period, 3.106 mmt of durum has been exported through licensed channels, down 7.4% from last year and 13.9% below the five-year average. An average of 76.9% of total crop year exports have been realized through licensed channels in the first 40 weeks over the past five years, an average pace that would project to crop year exports of 4 mmt, as compared to the current AAFC estimate of 4.6 mmt. This current estimate could prove overstated.

Canola exports as of week 40 totaled 7.993 mmt, down 7.4% from the same period in 2016/17 while 12.3% higher than the five-year average as of this week. Over the past five years, an average of 76.1% of crop year exports were achieved through licensed channels as of week 40, a pace that would project to crop year exports of 10.5 mmt, 1 mmt lower than the current AAFC estimate of 11.5 mmt for the crop year. At the same time, there were rumblings in the trade that China may be in the market last week, while the Vancouver cash basis strengthened $5/mt to $45 over on Friday, which could signal a possible uptick in export movement to come.

Exports of oats and barley are both well ahead of last year and the five-year average. Both are poised to surpass current AAFC estimates although accessibility and competition with domestic markets may limit the potential.

Dry pea exports, at 1.476 mmt, are 52% below the same period last year and 26% behind the five-year average. Over the past five years, an average of 65% of exports were reported through bulk licensed channels in the first 40 weeks of the crop year, which projects to crop year exports of 2.3 mmt, just short of the current 2.5 mmt AAFC estimate.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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