Canada Markets

Week 15 Handling Statistics Compared to Historical Data

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart looks at various Canadian grain handling statistics for 2017/18 (blue bars), 2016/17 (brown bars), as well as the four-year average (grey bars).

Total grain deliveries by producers into the licensed handling system totaled 1.151 million metric tons in week 15, or the week ending November 12. This is the highest level seen in three weeks and slightly higher than the previous four-week average. Year-to-date, producers have delivered 17.174 mmt into licensed facilities, down 1.5% from the same period in 2016/17 while 5.7% higher than the four-year average. Across the major grains, producers have delivered 401,800 mt more wheat, 289,400 mt more canola and 237,100 more soybeans than seen this time last year. At the same time, deliveries of durum are down 237,700 mt, deliveries of bulk peas are down 770,100 mt and deliveries of bulk lentils are down 604,600 mt as buyers and sellers address the recent tariff added to India's pea imports with the potential that a lentil tariff will follow.

Stocks in the country system total 3.8116 mmt as of November 12, which represents roughly 52.3% of total country capacity and 79.5% of total working capacity, as estimated by the Grain Monitoring Program. This is up from the previous week and slightly lower than the previous four-week average. As seen on the attached chart, this represents a higher volume of country stocks than reported as of week 15 in 2016/17 and is also higher than the four-year average. Space is reported to be the tightest in Manitoba, with stocks accounting for 83.9% of total estimated working capacity, while stocks in Saskatchewan account for 78.3% of total estimated working capacity.

Shipments from primary elevators is reported at close to 13.6 mmt as of week 15, up 2.3% from last crop year and 5.5% higher than the previous four year average, as seen on the attached graphic. While overall shipping from primary elevators in Saskatchewan and Alberta are down slightly from 2016/17 and their respective four-year average, shipping from Manitoba is well ahead of the same week in 2016/17 (21.7%) while is 41.6% ahead of the four-year average. This is partially tied to that province's earlier harvest as well as less reliance on both pea and lentil shipping.

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As seen on the attached chart, exports from all terminal elevators in Canada are slightly behind last year and the flour-year average pace as of week 15. Total exports from licensed facilities, however, which includes direct rail from Prairie elevators, is up 165,600 metric tons from last year or 1.4%. This includes 408,800 mt more wheat, 249,400 mt more barley and 375,300 mt more canola. Dry pea exports lag last year's pace by 661,400 mt while bulk lentil exports lag last year's pace by 288,000 mt.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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