The Canadian Grain Commissions latest week 40 data, which covers licensed grain handling activity for the week ending May 7, shows a cumulative total of 13,917,300 metric tons of Canada's all-wheat exported (including durum), which is the lowest cumulative volume reported for this week in five years or since 2012/13.
As indicated by the trend in the green line as measured against the secondary vertical axis, gains have been made in relation to 2015/16 export volumes, with week 39 data showing total cumulative volume at 84.7% of the previous crop year (green line), the highest percentage reported this crop year. This is a significant recovery from the year-over-year comparisons made early in the crop year.
By class, wheat (excluding durum) remains the challenge, with cumulative volumes at 82.7% of the same week in 2015/16, while durum exports are pegged at 90.8% of 2015/16 volumes.
The 2015/16 pace of movement saw roughly 4 mmt added to combined exports in the final 12 weeks of the crop year. This pace would suggest licensed exports for the crop year at 18 mmt, well-below the most recent April AAFC estimate of 20.5 mmt. Note that this does include unlicensed exports and the export of flour, which are counted in the AAFC estimate. As of February, total cumulative unlicensed exports of wheat (excluding durum) were pegged at 358,535 mmt. It is interesting that this volume is only slightly lower than reported for the same seven-month period in 2015/16, even though AAFC is expecting a significant year-over-year increase in unlicensed exports from Ontario.
While the USDA left Canada's all-wheat export potential for 2016/17 unchanged this month, watch for the potential for a downward revision in AAFC's estimates, due to be released any day.
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