Canada Markets

Much has been said and written about the current weather pattern which consists of a blocking ridge which has affected the western Prairies by eliminating any significant chances of moisture. As indicated by the June 9 analysis from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, a significant area of eastern Alberta, western Saskatchewan, an area surrounding Moose Jaw and Regina, as well as an area in northeast Saskatchewan are shaded red, receiving less than 40% of average precipitation in the April 1 to June 9 period.

It's important to note that the area which has received less than 40% of average precipitation includes areas which have received very little appreciable precipitation over this period. My travels during the weekend took me into west-central Saskatchewan near the Alberta border; I saw first-hand the uneven and patchy germination, as well as slow growth which has been the result of a serious lack of spring precipitation.

The following analysis looks at the crops most likely to be affected in this region, utilizing Statistics Canada Small Area Data while using best efforts to super-impose Small Area Data Regions over the red zone on the AAFC map. On a percentage basis, as seen on the attached graphic, some of the pulse and special crops are the most affected crops in the driest area of the Prairies. On average over the past five years, 65% of the canary seed production, 57% of the lentils, 54% of the dry peas and 47% of Canada's mustard production is produced in this area of the Prairies.

Also on a percentage basis, 49% of Canada's durum, 37% of the country's spring wheat production and 33% of the canola crop has also been produced in this region on average over the past five years.

On a volume basis, production averaged 7.6 million metric tons of spring wheat in this region over the past five years, while 5 mmt of canola, 3 mmt of barley and 2.3 mmt of durum have been produced on average in the said area over the past five years.

The weekly Difference in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) thematic map, which summarizes satellite data, shows the area in question rated as having a much-lower-than-normal vegetation index; this is of growing concern, given a crop seeded well ahead of average dates. Current forecasts from the National Weather Service in the U.S. indicate 19 to 25.4 millimeters over much of this dry area in the next seven days.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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