Canada Markets

A chart shared on social media circles from this week's Grain World in Winnipeg highlights the growing importance of soybean exports in Canada's mix of grain exports. Having exported approximately 3.4 million metric tonnes in 2013/14 and an average of approximately 2.9 mmt in the five-year period from 2009/10 to 2013/14, current Agriculture and Agri-Food estimates would suggest exports to grow to 4.3 mmt in 2014/15 and jump again to 4.8 mmt in 2015/16.

To appreciate the significance of this volume as compared to other crops, the 4.3 mmt forecast for the current year would place soybeans behind wheat exports forecast at 18.2 mmt for 2014/15, canola exports forecast at 9.2 mmt, and durum exports forecast at 4.9 mmt. The 4.8 mmt forecast for 2015/16 soybeans falls only 100,000 mt short of the current 4.9 mmt forecast for durum exports in the next crop year, placing soybeans on the verge of becoming the third-largest exported crop in Canada.

Week 28 grain statistics from the Canadian Grain Commission shows year-to-date exports through licensed channels at 2.390 mmt as of the week ended February 15, 11.5% above year-ago volumes and slightly ahead of the cumulative volume needed to reach the 4.3 mmt export target.

Grain Commission statistics show the industry firing on all cylinders in both exports from the West Coast as well as from St. Lawrence ports when compared to last year's data. As of the end of January, 541,100 metric tonnes of beans were exported from West Coast ports, which compares to 435,500 mt over the entire year in 2013/14. As well, 1.292 mmt are reported to have shipped from St Lawrence ports by the end of January, which compares to 1.021 mmt shipped from St Lawrence ports during the entire 2013/14 crop year. Lower volumes are also exported direct from Prairies elevators as well as from Bay and Lake ports, which are on track to achieve similar volumes to last year.

DTN 360 Poll

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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