Canada Markets

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada was more than cautious in its October supply and demand outlook for the grains and oilseeds as many record-sized crops add to the 2013/14 ending stocks of the principal field crops. Ending stocks for the principal field crops are estimated to increase 66% to 15.735 million metric tonnes in 2013/14. This was not the case for some of the smaller crops where supplies are actually set to tighten in the upcoming crop year.

While mustard production is estimated to increase 35,000 metric tonnes from year ago levels to 154,000 mt, supplies are estimated to be 6.4% lower due to tight carry-in stocks. The result is an overall estimated drop in estimated ending stocks to 30,000 mt from last year's estimated 36,000 mt. This would represent a 19% stocks/use ratio, down from 22% in 2012/13. This would be the tightest ending stocks since 2008, with the five-year average at 71,800 mt.

Despite higher yields in 2013/14, a reduction in acres to canary seed along with tight carry-in stocks from 2012/13 led to an overall 28% reduction in 2013/14 supplies of 120,000 mt. Even after scaling exports back 23% to a forecast of 105,000 mt, estimated ending stocks have been reduced by 77% from last year's estimate to 5,000 mt which represents a 4% stocks/use ratio, down from last year's 15%. This is the tightest ending stocks seen in Statistics Canada data which goes back to 1999, with the five-year average carryout at 43,000 mt.

Perhaps the tightest balance sheet seen across all crops is seen in Ag Canada's dry bean supply and demand data. A drop in estimated seeded acres combined with a drop in yield from 2012 is estimated to result in a 24% drop in supplies, totaling 277,000 mt. Overall carryout is estimated to fall to just 5,000 mt, after ending the 2012/13 crop year with a 30,000 mt carryout. This results in a 2% stocks/use ratio, down from 9% last year.

Lastly, Canada's rye stocks are estimated to tighten substantially in the upcoming year. A reduction in planted acres is leading to an estimated 33% reduction in overall supplies to 243,000 mt, resulting in a forecast for ending stocks of 15,000 mt, 67.4% below last year's estimated carryout of 46,000 mt. This would be the lowest ending stocks found in records going back to 1980 and quite possibly a record low.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@telventdtn.com

(ES)

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