Canada Markets

Planting delays are a focus of concern across Canada but also an issue in the northern States which are patiently waiting to seed crops such as spring wheat, durum, barley and corn, as well as the American Midwest where the primary focus is on planting corn.

I'm sure a number of producers from the Prairies can relate to one North Dakota producer who suggested his air seeder was frozen to the ground, perhaps still buried in snow like so many others. Seeing no chance of turning any wheels in the near future, he was off to Texas to hunt wild pigs by helicopter.

The latest DTN 360 Poll focused on this very issue of delayed seeding. Of the almost 40 readers who responded across the country, just 6% felt that seeding would start at a time that was normal or earlier than normal for their farm operation. Seventeen percent felt that planting dates would be delayed one to 6 days, 40% felt that planting would be delayed between one and two weeks and 37% felt that seeding would be delayed more than two weeks.

While these are early times for this particular DTN poll, the number of respondents is growing and hopefully this is a trend that continues. Respondents for this particular survey were split almost evenly between Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario.

Alberta shows the greatest distribution of results: 10% of respondents suggested seeding would begin a week or more earlier than normal. There has been a small amount of activity to date in the southern areas of the province, but it has been stop-start activity because of the ongoing weather which has limited progress. Twenty-seven percent responded that seeding would be just one to six days behind normal, 36% saw seeding delayed by one to two weeks and 27% chose choice 6, which saying their start date will be delayed by two weeks or more.

Results from Saskatchewan and Manitoba indicate the longest delays. In Saskatchewan, 12% of producers expected a delayed start one to six days behind normal, while 11% showed a one-to-two weeks delay and 77% responded that spring seeding would be delayed by two weeks or more.

Manitoba producers painted a picture of spring seeding that was very similar to Saskatchewan, with 58% choosing Choice 5, which indicates planting to be one to two weeks behind normal, while 42% see planting to be two weeks or more behind their normal start date.

Ontario plantings were also skewed towards a late starting date. While 10% felt they would start at a date that was normal for their operation, 20% felt they would be delayed by a period of one to six days, 60% felt they were looking at a one-to-two weeks delay and a further 10% felt the delay would be two weeks or more.

Badly needed is a warming trend to 1) melt snow and dry up wet soils then, 2) warm up soils to levels required for germination. Saskatchewan Agriculture indicates that soil temperature (at the appropriate planting depth) can be as low as 2 degrees C for canola and mustard, while cereals such as wheat and barley require 4 to 5 degrees. Peas and lentils can be seeded when soil temperatures reach 5 degrees. At the same time, optimal planting is suggested to be at a soil temperature of 10 degrees.

Ontario Agriculture views late-April and the first half of May as optimal planting dates for corn in order for the crop to avoid fall frosts and more fully capitalize on the growing season available. The optimal seeding date is viewed as May 7 in the Southwestern area and May 10 in the central and eastern regions of the province. Beyond optimal dates, potential yield loss formulas kick in for each day of planting delays. Like on the Prairies, an optimal soil temperature of 10 degrees C is optimal for both germination and emergence.

There will be plenty of focus on the impacts of late planting North America-wide in time. Today's USDA Crop Progress report has pegged U.S. corn plantings at 4% complete, as opposed to 26% complete last year and the five-year average of 15%. Many key growing areas, such as Iowa and Illinois and Nebraska, have either not started or have barely started, such as Illinois at 1% complete. Areas that were viewed to expand acres, such as the Dakotas, remain covered in snow.

While this data has yet to create buying interest in the grain pits, it is hard to imagine that it will not soon overtake weak old-crop demand as the more important issue in the markets.

Thanks to all those who responded to last week's poll. DTN values your participation and look forward to your thoughts in our upcoming weekly polls!

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@telventdtn.com

(AG)

© Copyright 2013 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.