Ag Weather Forum

Hot, dry weather in the Southern Plains is having more of an impact on winter wheat crop ratings with all of the major wheat producing states showing a decline during the past week. Crop development is increasing with 38% of the acreage now jointing in Oklahoma and 10% in Kansas. The driest area in the winter wheat belt remain in western Kansas with 84 to 91% of the region rated as short to very short topsoil moisture.

A major change in the weather pattern is expected during the next 10 days that will allow several opportunities for beneficial rain in the Southern Plains.

We are seeing consistent signs on the models of a return to an El Nino signature weather pattern across the United States. This means a return to wet weather in California with these disturbances providing an opportunity for rainfall in the Southern Plains.

Indications are that these disturbances will tend to slow down as they approach the Southern Plains and allow Gulf of Mexico moisture to move far enough to the west to reach the Southern Plains. Three opportunities for beneficial precipitation are expected during the next 10 days.

We would expect to see another decline in crop ratings next week as any beneficial rain will not arrive until later in the week. Beyond that, crop ratings should improve.

Michael Palmerino can be reached at michael.palmerino@dtn.com.

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