Ag Weather Forum

Rain and snow have not been a major weather feature across Western Canada during recent weeks and as we move deeper into spring we continue to have some concern as to how much soil moisture will be available for spring seeding. Despite a somewhat different weather pattern during the past week, we still have seen only spotty and light amounts of precipitation.

The west-to-east motion across southern Canada of recent days has not brought much precipitation because of the storm track's location. Most of the overrunning precipitation has occurred across the far northern Prairies and northward and left southern areas with just a few showers or snow showers.

We see another opportunity for some rain and snow this weekend, but again it appears that northern and eastern areas may receive more precipitation than the central and west areas. However, the latter areas have the greatest need of moisture at this time. The eastern Prairies have seen snow cover only recently depart and have also received more precipitation so far this early spring.

During the upcoming period, we will again see some changes to the upper level wind patterns across North America and again it will not bring much precipitation to Western Canada. Signs indicate that a return of some of the features we saw during February and March may be in store with a developing trough for south-central Canada and a ridge near Canada's West Coast.

This pattern is one that should continue to keep precipitation minimal for most of the Prairies and we should also see a downward trend in temperature, especially across the central and eastern Prairies. Some high latitude blocking may come into play, possibly locking the new pattern in place for a time.

Model forecasts for May have shifted a bit in recent days and now indicate drier- and milder-than-normal conditions for most of the Prairies. While the mild weather may be good, the less-than-normal precipitation aspect is one that could become more of a factor over time.

The evolving weather pattern during the rest of April will favor higher-than-average sunny weather along with less-than-average precipitation which will lead to a continuation of drying soil moisture levels. This situation is one we will have to monitor during the upcoming weeks. Eastern areas are in better shape than the west to date, but all areas could turn drier over time.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@dtn.com

(ES)

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