Ag Weather Forum

We have seen a dramatic increase in precipitation across the Midwest so far this spring season. Despite the fact that it has held up field work, the moisture is very welcome by producers to recharge soil moisture--especially in northwest areas which had been quite dry.

This turn to a much wetter pattern was not in evidence at the beginning of spring. The weather pattern had turned wetter east of the Mississippi River, but the 2012 drought was remaining well established west of the Mississippi. During the middle of February high latitude blocking developed across Canada. (We had discussed this feature in a blog earlier in the month). This blocking allowed for southern Canada and the northern US to turn much colder. Disturbances moved along this boundary zone between the cold air to the north and the warm air to the south. This allowed for a more expansive precipitation pattern to develop in the Midwest. This is where we now stand with areas that had been wet along and east of the Mississippi River now in flood and areas to the west now seeing much improved soil moisture.

What do we know going forward? First of all, the ability to foresee significant changes in this weather pattern well in advance is poor. Also--despite the turn to wet weather in the Midwest, it remains quite dry in Texas and the southwest Plains. This is where the drought continues to hold on.

I believe that the drought will be maintained in the southwest Plains going forward as all signs to break the drought with this pattern have failed. Will this drought expand back towards the north and east this summer into the Midwest? That is what we will be watching for.

Mike

(CZ/SK)

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