Ag Weather Forum

OMAHA (DTN) -- Even with precipitation from late-winter snowstorms, drought is still a dominant feature in most of the Plains. The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 19 indicated drought-free conditions only in northwestern North Dakota and northern Montana.

The length of dryness is mind-boggling. For example, "Philip (South Dakota) has had nothing (precipitation) since early last year," said South Dakota State Climatologist Dennis Todey.

Trends are similar in other states. Since the start of the U.S. Geological Survey water year Oct. 1, 2012, Nebraska has had very little moisture through March 19. "NCDC (National Climate Data Center) state weighted precipitation through the end of February was 2.84 inches," said Nebraska State Climatologist Al Dutcher.

After a record-dry year in 2012, this precipitation total is much less than needed to recharge soil moisture supplies. "Lincoln has 2 1/2 to 3 inches availability (soil moisture). It should be 5 to 6 inches this time of year," Dutcher said. Similar results have been noted in soil moisture tests in south-central Nebraska, and are true throughout much of the rest of the region.

Whether there is enough moisture to allow wheat and pastures to recover this spring is doubtful. Results thus far are mixed, even with a jet stream pattern change back in February which brought more storm systems into the Plains. "We saw record or near-record storms in February in central and southern Kansas, central Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, with enough topsoil moisture to get the (wheat) crop up and going favorably," said DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Mike Palmerino. "But western Kansas, eastern Colorado, Nebraska -- they could do better but have not yet."

Palmerino noted that the source region for moisture in the storms that have moved across the Plains is not typical. "The way this pattern has been acting, there is no way to bring Gulf of Mexico moisture into the region," he said. "The jet stream is such that moisture has to be brought in from the north. The abnormality of this pattern shows up in that lack of Gulf inflow into Texas and adjacent areas of the southwest Plains."

Todey's concern is focused on what happens following spring planting. "After planting is the issue," he said. "I don't see a refill of the profile (soil moisture) this spring. The chances are very much against it."

In that case, longer-term trends on summer temperatures come into play, which are unfavorable for the Plains region with the lack of soil moisture. "Can we keep rainfall going through the season to keep stress down?" Todey asked. "NOAA says above-normal temperatures late spring into summer. And like last year, warmer temperatures would increase crop water use and take up moisture."

Higher temperatures and increased crop water needs lead to another issue in many Plains areas -- a lack of available water for irrigation. "We had a lot of problems with wells pumping air in northeast Nebraska last year, and that area has precipitation deficits since Oct. 1 approaching 17 inches," Dutcher said. "This year, we're going to have to have incredible rain in the next few months for that to offset the problem arising even earlier."

There is also a continued lack of moisture available for irrigation and stream flow from Rocky Mountain snow pack, according to National Drought Mitigation Center Climatologist Brian Fuchs.

"Snow pack is down 20% to 30%, and even if there's heavy snow before mid-April, we won't improve beyond 10%," Fuchs said. Fuchs also said that the water level at Lake McConaughy in western Nebraska is 13 feet below its level last year. "Moving forward, this is a tough year for many ag concerns," he said.

There is also the concern that, given the extremes in weather patterns the past few years, a springtime pattern change might not be gradual -- or accompanied by moisture.

"When this current colder pattern breaks down, what does it leave you with?" Palmerino said. "We could see a quick return to very warm and dry conditions as soon as things change."

In the final analysis, spring may be the bell cow for the entire crop season in the grain market's psychology. "Spring weather will likely be more important this year than any since the start of the demand market in 2006," said DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom. "If weather doesn't cooperate this spring, then it may be too late for weather to be much help later this summer."

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@telventdtn.com

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