Ag Weather Forum

Flood season bulletins are coming out now with the shift to springtime. And, both northern and southern sections of the U.S. are looking for a more active flood season--which could certainly cause some delays in spring planting in river-bottom areas.

RED RIVER OF THE NORTH

The National Weather Service office in Grand Forks, ND notes that much of the Red River main stem has a high risk (greater than 50 percent) for major flooding. Snow pack increased due to storms early this month. Snow depth ranges from 6 to 12 inches in the central Red valley to around two feet in the far north and far southern Red basins. In the Devils Lake basin, snowpack ranges from around a foot in the south to around 30 inches north. Snow pack water content is in the 3-5 inch range. Conditions are categorized as near normal to much above normal.

Some of the snowpack water has infiltrated into the topsoil, but most is expected to contribute to runoff and flood potential. Frost depths range from 39 to 43 inches. River ice is around 1-2 feet, which is normal for this time of year.

The rest of March features below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation--which would increase the flood risk. The spring season (Mar/Apr/May) is one of "equal chances" for above, below, and normal temperatures and precipitation.

The Mid-South Hydrologic Center in Memphis is also expecting flooding. Here's an excerpt of that bulletin:

...MIDSOUTH SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

Recent snow and rainfall along with the spring precipitation outlooks for the Mid-South indicate we should expect a near normal spring flood season. This includes the Tennessee and Mississippi Rivers and the tributaries along these two rivers.

Rain has been heavy the last couple of months in the Mid-South. Eight to over 12 inches were measured. Upstream--similar amounts were noted in the Ohio, Cumberland, and Tennessee River valleys. Recent snowstorms in the Midwest added important moisture in the upper and mid-Mississippi River valley and the Missouri River valley downstream from Kansas City. This Midwest precipitation added to the snowpack and increased stream flow and recharged groundwater in the upper layers over a large area.

The precipitation outlook for March, April and May is calling for normal rain in north Mississippi and a 30 to 40 percent chance of above normal rainfall in eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee. A good portion of the important Ohio Valley could have more precipitation than usual. Upper and mid-Mississippi Valley states could also see more rain than normal too.

Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN