2025 Digital Yield Tour - North Dakota

OMAHA (DTN) -- A repeated theme among producers in North Dakota is that the major storm systems need to subside, and the crops need some heat.

Still, North Dakota is on track for a good crop with higher-than-average corn yields and soybean yields on par with the state's five-year average, according to the 2025 DTN Digital Yield Tour. North Dakota was not included in the DTN Digital Yield Tour in 2024.

Overall production should be high because of the constant moisture, but also the limited prevented-planting acres in the state.

The Farm Service Agency reported Tuesday that North Dakota farmers planted nearly 6.45 million acres of soybeans and 4.57 million acres of corn. Just as importantly, the state's prevent-plant acreage was just under 383,000 acres for the year.

Despite a mix of heavy storms across North Dakota, the state actually has more counties showing some abnormally dry or moderate drought conditions than a year ago, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

CORN YIELD ESTIMATE

-- DTN 2025: 151.9 bpa

-- DTN 2024: n/a

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 140.7 bpa

SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATE

-- DTN 2025: 34.7 bpa

-- DTN 2024: n/a

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 34.6 bpa

While the DTN Digital Yield Tour is in its eighth season, this is the second year that employs DTN's proprietary crop yield models. For more about how those models work, what makes them unique and some of the challenges posed by conditions this growing season, please see: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Results for all states covered by the tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Updated yield estimates will be shared in a DTN Ag Summit Series webinar on Aug. 19, along with fall weather and market outlooks. You can register for free here: https://dtn.link/….

WEATHER COMMENTS

"Like South Dakota and Minnesota, a lack of snow cover and drought that covered much of the state early in the season might have led to a quick planting pace this year," DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said. He added that some farmers may have waited to avoid a few May frosts or for the ground to thaw to finally get their crop in the ground.

"It seemed like the weather pattern was more active starting in late April and went through the summer, although rainfall was sporadic and chaotic. Heavy, soaking rains were not very common, and a lot came from spotty thunderstorm development. That led to some areas across the south getting beneficial rains while the north suffered some drought, especially in June and July," he said.

"The other factor has been severe weather, which has been plenty, though mostly due to wind and not so much hail. Still, the significant derecho that moved through June 20-21 across the southern half of the state caused significant crop and infrastructure damage that likely has played a role in yields this year," he said.

"Heat has been harder to come by this year, and frequent cold fronts have kept some areas from reaching their normal growing degree days, but it has also lessened the stresses that usually come being this far north," Baranick said.

MARKET COMMENTS

"The North Dakota corn crop came into the month of August rated at 71% good to excellent, according to USDA, slightly behind the state's rating in early August 2024," DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery said. "The growing season for North Dakota has had some weather challenges, with a lot of moisture and cooler-than-average weather, especially early in the growing season. Given the strong conditions, an above-average yield is certainly possible, but I wouldn't be shocked either to see yields come in slightly behind 2024," Montgomery said.

"North Dakota's 2025 soybean crop is also being seen in very similar condition to August of 2024, rated at 63% good to excellent to start the month. Outside of a particularly down year in 2021, North Dakota soybean yields have been very consistent in the mid-30s bpa, and I believe, given the mixed weather conditions this growing season for the Northern Plains, it is reasonable to assume an average yield for 2025."

OBSERVATIONS

-- Paul Thomas, Velva, North Dakota:

"It's been very different in the whole region versus many other years -- a lot more severe weather," said Paul Thomas, who farms near Velva, North Dakota, about 40 miles east of Minot. "It's been more common and more repetitive throughout the whole year than what we typically experience."

In the spring, north-central North Dakota had some early hot days, followed by a cloudy, colder and wet stretch in May. Thomas said his no-till corn, planted later in the season, "really suffered from the cold weather right away. It was just really slow getting up and going."

Thomas said his winter wheat, triticale and yellow peas each reflected below-average yields, but he thinks the spring crops show better promise.

"Our spring wheat, canola and our corn and soybeans -- they're all going to be above average," Thomas said.

Thomas doesn't think the crop will achieve the same yields he produced in 2023 and 2024, which were the best two years on his farm. The rainy, cooler conditions this year could pull that yield down, especially on the corn, he said.

"I know on corn we won't match the yields we've had the past two years," Thomas said. "On soybeans, there could be the potential to have as good as we had the past couple of years."

Smoke from Canadian fires has been a persistent problem this year, dulling the sunshine, Thomas said. The jury is out on whether that will have an impact on crop development.

"It's almost more odd to see a day without smoke than a day with smoke," Thomas said. "It's a little bit concerning with the lack of sunlight and heat that it seems like we're having."

"We've still got most of August and all of September left, so we could end up with a strong finish for the corn and beans."

-- Chris Johnson, Wahpeton, North Dakota:

Chris Johnson, who farms in southeast North Dakota, said before the last weekend's storms that moisture was "bordering on excess," but he liked how his crops looked. "I don't really have a spot that's hurting."

Johnson farms within that cluster of southeastern counties that project average corn yields around 180 bpa.

The heavy rains are starting to lead to more drowned-out fields in the area. The rains also have hurt the ability to get the spring wheat crop harvested.

"All of the rain events have kind of melded together," Johnson said. "We've been getting smaller rain amounts than other places, about every third day or so."

Johnson said he hasn't seen any nitrogen deficiency, green snap or other production issues in the corn. The soybeans also appear to be podding well.

"We need heat to get this crop finished," Johnson said.

A concern, he said, is that the sweet corn is behind schedule. Johnson said that normally, he would be eating his own sweet corn, but it's not ready to pick. "That could be a canary in the coal mine, so to speak, on corn," Johnson said.

Fungicide applications are increasing in North Dakota but are still relatively new. Johnson repeated comments other farmers have made about the cost benefit of spraying fungicides this year.

"If there was ever a year it would really help, this might be the year, because the conditions are really ripe for it," he said.

But new-crop cash corn is being priced at $3.50 a bushel, and soybeans basis is 80 cents to 90 cents under as well.

"A lot of guys now are looking at: Why spend more money on something that might not break even?" Johnson said.

Grain storage will also be in short supply following the derecho in late June. While that storm didn't do as much damage to crops, the state lost tens of millions of bushels of grain storage, leading the state of North Dakota to offer $37 million in emergency funding to try to quicky rebuild some storage capacity.

"There will be a lot of grain bags out or grain stored on the ground because the storms took a lot of on-farm storage and a lot of commercial storage, too, in certain areas," Johnson said. "The crop has to go somewhere."

-- Julianne Racine, North Dakota State University Extension agent, LaMoure County:

LaMoure County, in southeast North Dakota, is typically among the highest-yielding, non-irrigated counties in the state for corn -- topping 186 bpa the past two years in a row. During the past five years, the county's average soybean yield has been 40.7 bpa, which is about 6 bushels better than the state average.

Julianne Racine, a North Dakota State University Extension agent in LaMoure County, said she was worried about the crops in late July. The soybeans were stunted, and corn was still knee-high across the county. "I went away for a week, and I was worried," Racine said. "When I left, we got a lot of rain and a lot of heat, and the corn just bolted, and the canopies were closed. It was absolutely incredible."

Visiting with farmers in the county, Racine said, "They all say the same thing: Corn is going to be a monster crop, but there is a long way to go."

Farmers in LaMoure County told Racine that, barring any extreme weather events, they see potential yields from 200 to 250 bpa. "The lowest number I got was 200," she said. "These are my words, not the farmers, but it just looks like it is going to be kind of phenomenal ... Again, it's a long way to go, and conditions need to stay good."

She said the risk is that farmers could face high moisture content at harvest. That could translate into farmers spending money on drying costs. "Whatever yield bump you get from a monster crop, you might be spending it trying to dry it," Racine said, reiterating that some heat units are needed between now and mid-September.

LaMoure County's soybean yield could range from 40-50 bpa, but Racine said farmers could be hit with white mold if they didn't apply an early preventive fungicide. "It should be on the radar and a concern going forward," she said. "The problem now is it is too late to spray for white mold because the canopies are closed."

She added, "Other than that, the beans right now really look beautiful."

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Editor's note: DTN will make its proprietary crop yield predictions available to members for the 2026 growing season, in an interactive experience. Members will be able to see bi-weekly updates on yield at the state, county and field level. The yield data will be found exclusively on DTN's new site that will launch in early 2026. This site will include DTN's agriculture news, markets commentary, weather forecasting and a number of farm operation features, such as yield predictions, agronomic models and transactional tools. If you'd like to receive updates on the new platform and get early access, you can sign up here: https://dtn.link/…

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

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