2025 Digital Yield Tour Details

The U.S. corn crop is poised for the first above-trendline national average corn yield since 2018 as it heads into the final stages of the growing season, according to the results of DTN's yield models as of Aug. 1.

For the second year in a row, DTN's proprietary yield models are the driving force behind the DTN Digital Yield Tour, which combines those data-driven, view-from-above forecasts with insights from farmers, agronomists and other experts to paint a picture of corn and soybean yield potential as crops hit their pivotal filling stages.

Throughout the week, DTN will publish details about corn and soybeans crops in 11 states according to this schedule:

-- Monday, Aug. 11: Illinois, Wisconsin

-- Tuesday, Aug. 12: Iowa, Minnesota

-- Wednesday, Aug. 13: North Dakota, South Dakota

-- Thursday, Aug. 14: Indiana, Ohio

-- Friday, Aug. 15: Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri

-- Saturday, Aug. 16: Best of the Rest (Short summaries of Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas)

Like 2024, the tour will not be releasing national yield estimates. DTN's models forecast at the field level. While statistical inferences could be made to generate national estimates, DTN is still doing its diligence on the accuracy of those methods.

Digital Yield Tour estimates are based on DTN's proprietary yield models as of Aug. 1. The models update every two weeks and do not incorporate weather forecasts.

Updated yield model results will be shared on Tuesday, Aug. 19 in the DTN Ag Summit Series webinar, as well as DTN's market and weather outlooks for fall. You can register for that free event here: https://dtn.link/… .

WELL-WATERED SEASON BOOSTS POTENTIAL

"For the vast majority of the Corn Belt, rainfall has been great -- frequent and moderate to heavy," said DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick. Flooding has been minor, and wind caused more damage than hail.

Water wasn't always abundant or beneficial in 2025. In fact, the Plains and western Midwest started out in a deep drought.

"Soils were dry and allowed producers to get out there early if they wanted to brave potential frosts," he said.

It was the reverse in southeastern portions of the Corn Belt, where heavy rain fell from early April and into May. "Soils were difficult to plant in. Many waited a long time past their preferred window to get their crops in the ground," Baranick said.

Some pockets of dryness persisted through mid-July, most notably along the Kansas-Nebraska border and northern reaches of Illinois and Indiana. "There could have been some pollination issues because of it, but in general, I would imagine that to be limited to some unlucky folks."

Heatwaves have generally been short lived, even though temperatures have been above normal, on average, this summer "leading to above-normal growing degree days and faster crop growth."

CROP GROWTH SPOTLIGHTS CHALLENGES OF SATELLITE-POWERED MODELS

The corn crop's rapid growth at later stages lead to many reports of "tassel wrap," a relatively uncommon condition where the uppermost whorl becomes tightly wrapped around the tassel as it begins to emerge. It can lead to a mismatch of pollen shed and silk emergence, resulting in varying degrees of ineffective pollination and poor kernel set if it affects enough plants in the field, according to Purdue University agronomist Bob Nielsen.

Poor pollination is one thing models don't do a great job of forecasting this early in the season, said John Mewes, a North Dakota farmer and chief scientist for DTN's ClearAg unit, which developed the models.

Pollination is not the only problem that's hard to see from satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) maps, which reflect how green a crop looks compared to historical averages. Mewes said soil saturation could be a problem, too.

"It's going to be hard to see whether that excess water sitting around the roots, around the base of the corn plant, is going to affect yield," Mewes said. "I'm not sure that it's ever going to be visible from space, but it very much could crimp the fill of corn."

The role of August weather on soybean pod fill also makes early forecasts hard to trust. "There's pretty much nothing settled with the bean crop as of Aug. 1," he said.

ABOUT THE MODEL

DTN's yield models forecast at the field level using a wide array of publicly available data, such as NDVI maps, growing degree days, USDA crop condition reports and more. They also include DTN's proprietary weather and soil data, making them unique.

The DTN data science team rolls those granular forecasts into county and state averages.

That's not the only thing that makes DTN's methodology unique. DTN's models are trained on Risk Management Agency (RMA) yield data, rather than monthly estimates prepared by NASS. RMA's data is compiled using crop insurance data, while NASS surveys farmers to build its county yield estimates. RMA's county yields tend to be higher than those reported by NASS, but the differences vary by county and region. By using RMA data, DTN can generate countywide forecasts for places with limited crop production.

Currently, the DTN Digital Yield Tour and the upcoming Ag Summit Series webinar are the only way DTN shares its models. But that will change in 2026.

DTN will make an interactive experience with its proprietary crop yield predictions available to members for the 2026 growing season. Members will be able to see bi-weekly updates on yield at the state, county and field level. The yield data will be found exclusively on DTN's new website that will launch in early 2026. This website will include DTN's agriculture news, markets commentary, weather forecasting and a number of farm operation features, such as yield predictions, agronomic models, and transactional tools. If you'd like to receive updates on the new platform and get early access, you can sign up here: https://dtn.link/…

Katie Dehlinger can be reached at katie.dehlinger@dtn.com

You can follow her on social media platform X at @KatieD_DTN

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