DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...122 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW SUN...30 AT STANLEY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...CHICAGO, IL 1.28 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in Hudson Bay and a ridge in the South. Both features will do a sort of tug-of-war across the middle of the country this week, resulting in a very active pattern. A trough will form in the West on Thursday and be reinforced next week, aiding in the active pattern.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the GFS.

A storm system will move across the Corn Belt this weekend with another sometime next week, the details of which are a bit uncertain. Either way, this should support an active pattern across much of the Corn Belt into next week.

Temperatures will be mild across the north but hot across the south. While that will aid thunderstorm development at times, it could create some heat stress on the southern end of the Corn Belt and for those in the Southeast if showers do not develop.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A few isolated showers went through this weekend, but most areas stayed dry. The forecast has turned much milder for this week, with many chances for clusters of showers and thunderstorms to move through. That should aid in some easement of stress that has been expanding over the last month or so. However, storms could be scattered and miss some key areas and will need to be watched.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Areas of showers developed over the weekend, but were sparse while temperatures remained hot. Temperatures will remain hot for most areas this week, though a front will be waffling around Nebraska and nearby areas throughout the week. That will aid in thunderstorm development at various points throughout the week, especially with a system riding along the front on Thursday and another going through most of the region Friday and Saturday. Scattered showers are likely to ease stress and build some soil moisture across the north while southern areas will remain hotter and drier. This pattern may continue through next week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through the region over the weekend, bringing some needed rainfall to some areas while others remained unfortunately drier. The setup for this week favors daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through this weekend and quite likely into next week as well. Temperatures will be mild in general, but a stalled front in the south could mean higher temperatures across areas like Missouri and the Ohio Valley.

If these areas pick up some good moisture, they could deal with the heat. But if they remain dry, then stress could continue to mount for filling crops.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Spotty showers continued over the weekend, hitting very few areas that need rainfall. Showers will be possible each day this week, but will be spotty while temperatures will be hot, a stressful combination for filling cotton and soybeans.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers went through Alberta over the weekend, which was beneficial, with some spotty showers elsewhere.

Areas of showers will go through the region each day this week, which may favor some of the drier areas in the south. Temperatures will be mild, which will also be favorable. If showers are too isolated, then there could continue to be areas of stress and falling conditions. But if the showers are more widespread, there could be some significant improvements.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Isolated showers went through southern Brazil over the weekend, an area that has seen favorable rainfall over the last month or so. Several fronts waffling about the area will continue to produce rainfall this week, overall favorable for vegetative winter wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): It was cold and dry over the weekend, with some areas of frost. With winter wheat being vegetative, no damage is expected. The pattern remains active across the country, which will lead to reinforcing cold shots for this week and next, keeping growth slow. Despite this, chances for rain are limited in the primary wheat areas. If precipitation amounts don't pick up as wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth next month, yield reductions are possible.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Extreme heat and little rainfall have plagued western Europe all summer long, a pattern that continues this week as well. Eastern areas have had more disruption to the heat, including periods of rain, but conditions have been degrading there this summer as well. More days of above-normal temperatures and limited rainfall will continue the process.

BLACK SEA (CORN): Some isolated showers went through over the weekend, but most areas remained dry. A couple of fronts will move through this week, but the forecast is only calling for limited rainfall. Though temperatures will be rather variable into next week, the lack of rain is causing conditions to worsen for filling corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Areas of heavy rain fell over southeastern areas over the weekend, reversing the recent drier trend in the region and improving conditions for winter wheat and canola. A couple of fronts and disturbances will move through this week, but opportunities for additional rainfall are lower. So despite the recent improvements, the overall trend is still toward lower precipitation amounts as crops become reproductive this month and next.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Typhoon Dolphin moved into central China over the weekend, bringing heavy rain to some corn and soybean areas. The remnants of the storm will sit in central China early this week and be slow to dissolve, which may result in some extreme rainfall amounts in some areas on the North China Plain, leading to flood damage. If those happen to be in some of the primary corn and soybean areas, there could be massive disruption to an otherwise favorable pattern this year.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday-Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, near normal Monday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, especially north.

Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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