2025 Digital Yield Tour - South Dakota

OMAHA (DTN) -- This week, the 2025 DTN Digital Yield Tour predicts mixed outcomes for South Dakota, with the statewide corn yield estimate exceeding USDA's Risk Management Agency five-year average and soybean yields falling below.

However, some South Dakota farmers surrounded by lush, green fields are looking for personal-record corn and soybean crops, amid timely rains and high temperatures.

CORN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2025: 169.2 bushels per acre (bpa)

-- DTN 2024: 166.7 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 153.8 bpa

SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2025: 43.8 bpa

-- DTN 2024: 50.1 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 47.0 bpa

While the DTN Digital Yield Tour is in its eighth season, this is the second that employs DTN's proprietary crop yield models. For more about how those models work, what makes them unique and some of the challenges posed by conditions this growing season, please see: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Results for all states covered by the tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Updated yield estimates will be shared in a DTN Ag Summit Series webinar on Aug. 19, along with fall weather and market outlooks. You can register for free here: https://dtn.link/…

WEATHER COMMENTS

"There was no snow cover this spring, and snow that fell quickly melted," DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said. "Drought covered the entire state on April 1, with much of the state in D2 drought. The situation looked rather dire to start the year, though planting may have started early because of these conditions. Others may have chosen to wait for some moisture or for the risk of frost to subside, which may have opened up the planting window a little wider this year," he said.

"However, the weather pattern should generally be regarded as active this year, with multiple systems and fronts bringing regular showers and thunderstorms through the state. That quickly reduced the drought starting in late April and continuing through July. While very little of the state is still in some form of drought, there is a patch near the Missouri River in south-central portions of the state, so not all areas benefited from the active pattern," he said.

"There have also been some significant severe weather events, none more so than the derecho that developed in the southeast corner of the state on July 28, with another round that moved over the same areas the next day on July 29. Damage was mostly to trees and structures, but there could be some damage there that satellites have yet to pick up on," Baranick added.

MARKET COMMENTS

"According to weekly USDA conditions, the South Dakota crop is much higher rated as compared to the previous five-year average, and the highest rating entering August since 2020," DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery said. "A yield of 169.2 bpa would be a steady-to-moderate improvement in 2025 as compared to last year, which seems reasonable although crop conditions suggest it may be even stronger. However, crop condition ratings are not perfect yield estimators, year in and year out," he said.

"A 43.8-bpa soybean yield would be about a 7-point decline from the five-year RMA average for South Dakota, which is in disagreement with the stellar 72% good-to-excellent rating from USDA to begin August," said Montgomery. "The state of South Dakota does have some lingering dryness and drought, so perhaps that is something the DTN modeling is capturing in 2025, although the official drought monitor reading to begin August is slightly less than at the same time in 2024."

OBSERVATIONS

-- Brandon Wipf, Huron, South Dakota:

Rains have been timely for corn and soybean growers throughout South Dakota.

Normally, at this time, Brandon Wipf, who farms in east central South Dakota north of Huron, watches the green dry while waiting for rain. This year, he's experienced the opposite -- timely rains, little-to-no drown out and the "best looking corn we've ever had, or close to it."

Wipf's only complaint is the lack of sunshine.

"We're feeling pretty good at this point. Soybeans lagged behind for a long time just because of the lack of sunshine. They've been looking a lot better the last three weeks, they've really come around," Wipf said.

"I'm sure we're a little short on growing days because of the cloudiness and wildfire smoke, and we've had tons of heat," he added.

DTN's 2025 statewide yield estimates seem "normal" to Wipf. However, nationwide, he's expecting a good crop.

"With the weather we've had this year, it wouldn't surprise me. I feel like we are the exception in terms of avoiding the nasty stuff. There's certainly going to be areas that have been impacted worse than us," he said.

This summer, Wipf treated for tar spot in corn for the first time after hearing that it was in the area.

"We've never had to do that before. So, that was new for us," Wipf said. "I've heard it to be 30-50 bushels per acre of loss, so we decided to be proactive, and we thought the corn was good enough at this time to invest in."

Going into August and September, Wipf believes his corn crop is made after sufficient rain this summer. Soybeans, he said, may reach their potential after at least one good rain.

"We'll have the beans probably right up to what their potential is, we planned a little shorter maturity, so by Sept. 1," Wipf said.

-- J.D. Wangsness, Miller, South Dakota:

Avoiding most of the severe weather this summer, farmer and rancher J.D. Wangsness believes he will see more than 200 bpa on his corn crop. "Green as ever" in his neck of the woods, Wangsness said his crops are sitting nice for August.

"These conditions are equal to or better than I've had the last two years. Weatherwise, humidity has been quite high this summer, and the temperatures haven't been oppressively hot. Corn just keeps growing; it's been a very low-stress year," Wangsness said.

Heading into harvest, Wangsness said his beans are starting to pod and will be filling in September, which, to him, is the month that could drive harvest home or not.

"September is the big question, as it always is. Two years ago, we got some extreme heat, and it easily took 5 bushels off of beans. Last year, it did the opposite. We were a little dry and we actually got some rain in September, and it added about 4 bushels to the beans," Wangsness said.

A few more timely rains and the corn is going to be made, Wangsness said. Around the state, he said DTN yield estimates are not far off. He has seen pockets of dry areas not far from home, as well as some pockets that are way too wet.

-- Tanner Hento, Avon, South Dakota:

After a tough start to the year, farmer Tanner Hento of Avon, South Dakota, said yield potential is promising, but crops got off to a tough start.

"It was really, really cold. Our emergence wasn't anything phenomenal," he said, adding that it was probably one of his harder starts to a season. "But it's been uphill since then, in a good way," he said.

"I think Bon Homme County specifically is one of the weaker areas of South Dakota just for how we started, but overall, it looks promising," Hento said.

Temperatures in the Avon area have been favorable. Rains, however timely, also brought a few hailstorms and high winds.

"For the most part, everyone has avoided anything disastrous," he said. "I don't think we could have dialed the rain in much better."

Hento said there's enough flaws in the growing season that his yields won't hit the top, but will be a top three.

"We've had two years on the farm where our corn has averaged 225 bpa. I don't think we can quite get there this year with some of the flaws -- cold start, some drown-out spots -- but 220 is on the table," he said.

Beans look better than corn, and a 62- to 63-bpa yield on beans is possible, he said.

He said DTN's yield predictions for the state are realistic. The only "black cloud" on the corn crop this year is disease and pest pressure.

"When it's warm like this -- when it's humid -- the environment for bugs is paradise," Hento said, adding that he just finished fungicide applications on all of his corn acres and did lots of testing this summer. "It takes a lot to get above state averages. We're staring down $3 corn quick, so you're going to need 12-15 bpa of corn to compensate for diseases. Economics do matter."

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Editor's note: DTN will make its proprietary crop yield predictions available to members for the 2026 growing season, in an interactive experience. Members will be able to see bi-weekly updates on yield at the state, county and field level. The yield data will be found exclusively on DTN's new site that will launch in early 2026. This site will include DTN's agriculture news, markets commentary, weather forecasting and a number of farm operation features, such as yield predictions, agronomic models, and transactional tools. If you'd like to receive updates on the new platform and get early access, you can sign up here: https://dtn.link/…

Susan Payne can be reached at susan.payne@dtn.com

Follow her on social platform X @jpusan

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