DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail fertilizer prices continued to be mixed in the first week of December 2023, according to sellers surveyed by DTN.

Prices for five of the eight major fertilizers were lower than last month, while prices for the remaining three fertilizers were slightly higher.

Two fertilizers had a notable price move compared to last month. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more. UAN28 was down 6% from last month and had an average price of $340 per ton. Urea, meanwhile, was 5% lower compared to a month earlier with an average price of $543 per ton.

Three fertilizers were down just slightly. DAP had an average price of $713 per ton, 10-34-0 $595/ton and UAN32 $409/ton.

Prices for the remaining three fertilizers were just slightly higher compared to last month. MAP had an average price of $820/ton, potash $516/ton and anhydrous $847/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.60/lb.N, anhydrous $0.52/lb.N, UAN28 $0.61/lb.N and UAN32 $0.64/lb.N.

Fitch Ratings said it was going to increase its price assumption for several different types of fertilizers, according to Dow Jones. Higher year-to-date prices, higher natural gas prices and supportive supply and demand trends were the reasons for the change.

Higher natural gas prices and improving demand are the reasons ammonia prices could be higher. Urea might see a price increase due to higher year-to-date prices and increased natural gas price assumptions.

DAP prices could be higher with some supply restrictions. And DAP demand should be supported by the upcoming planting season in the U.S., according to the report.

One fertilizer with little outlook change was potash. Potash exports from Russia and Belarus have been recovering but remain below historical levels.

"Demand remains strong, supported by imports to China, despite seasonally weaker demand in Brazil," the report stated.

All fertilizers are now lower by double digits compared to one year ago. MAP is 14% lower, 10-34-0 is 21% less expensive, DAP is 23% lower, urea is 31% lower, potash is 37% lower, both anhydrous and UAN32 are 40% less expensive and UAN28 is 42% less expensive compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

Agricultural producers' sentiment increased for a second straight month, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Index. You can read about it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Dec 5-Dec 9 2022	920	950	819	784
Jan 2-Jan 6 2023	876	879	752	739
Jan 30-Feb 3 2023	847	862	704	698
Feb 27-Mar 3 2023	827	827	666	648
Mar 27-31 2023	818	810	644	626
Apr 24-28 2023	827	804	624	595
May 22-26 2023	834	832	624	623
June 19-23 2023	825	827	618	619
July 17-21 2023	807	812	608	596
Aug 14-18 2023	745	762	558	573
Sep 11-15 2023	710	742	500	554
Oct 9-13 2023	711	794	506	575
Nov 6-10 2023	714	802	509	573
Dec 4-8 2023	713	820	516	543
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Dec 5-Dec 9 2022	751	1415	581	681
Jan 2-Jan 6 2023	754	1302	573	673
Jan 30-Feb 3 2023	754	1223	518	583
Feb 27-Mar 3 2023	741	1077	444	525
Mar 27-31 2023	741	1026	428	513
Apr 24-28 2023	740	928	426	508
May 22-26 2023	739	798	419	509
June 19-23 2023	734	755	402	471
July 17-21 2023	717	713	385	457
Aug 14-18 2023	705	630	359	399
Sep 11-15 2023	600	696	353	389
Oct 9-13 2023	613	804	356	418
Nov 6-10 2023	613	830	360	415
Dec 4-8 2023	595	847	340	409

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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