DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail fertilizer prices were evenly mixed for the fourth week of November 2023, according to sellers surveyed by DTN.

Prices for four of the eight major fertilizers were lower compared to last month, while prices for the remaining four fertilizers were slightly higher. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

One fertilizer had a noteworthy price move compared to last month. UAN28 was down 5% from last month. The nitrogen fertilizer had an average price of $341 per ton.

The remaining three fertilizers were down just slightly. Urea had an average price of $552 per ton, 10-34-0 $595/ton and UAN32 $409/ton.

Four fertilizers were just slightly higher in price compared to last month. DAP had an average price of $715/ton, MAP $820/ton, potash $518/ton and anhydrous $847/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.60/lb.N, anhydrous $0.52/lb.N, UAN28 $0.61/lb.N and UAN32 $0.64/lb.N.

Agricultural producers' sentiment increased for the second consecutive month, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Index. The index rose 5 points to a reading of 115, a 12% increase compared to last year (https://ag.purdue.edu/…).

The Index of Current Conditions rose by 12 points to 113, while the Index of Future Expectation increased by 2 points to 116. The Farm Financial Performance Index also climbed in November to a reading of 95, which is up 3 points from October.

Top concerns for the upcoming year include higher input costs (32%), rising interest rates (26%) and lower crop and/or livestock prices (20%).

"Notably, there has been a shift in concern throughout the year, with fewer producers expressing worry over higher input costs compared to the beginning of the year," the report stated. "Instead, more producers are now concerned about rising interest rates and lower crop and livestock prices."

Input costs, including the price of fertilizers, have fallen throughout the year.

All fertilizers are now lower by double digits compared to one year ago. MAP is 15% lower, 10-34-0 is 21% less expensive, DAP is 23% lower, urea is 31% lower, potash is 38% lower, both anhydrous and UAN32 are 40% less expensive and UAN28 is 42% less expensive compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

The outlook for nitrogen fertilizer appears to be positive as we move into 2024. You can read more about that in the first story in DTN's annual Global Fertilizer Outlook series, "Global Nitrogen Fertilizer Supply, Demand Outlook Generally Favorable," here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Nov 28-Dec 2 2022	926	960	831	795
Dec 26-Dec 30 2022	885	891	765	751
Jan 23-Jan 27 2023	855	865	714	708
Feb 20-Feb 24 2023	836	834	673	666
Mar 20-Mar 24 2023	821	812	645	627
Apr 17-21 2023	826	812	643	626
May 15-19 2023	829	831	627	619
June 12-16 2023	823	832	621	624
July 10-14 2023	811	823	614	609
Aug 7-Aug 11 2023	758	764	566	576
Sep 4-8 2023	738	745	518	563
Oct 2-6 2023	705	791	508	573
Oct 30-Nov 3 2023	713	801	508	573
Nov 27-Dec 1 2023	715	820	518	552
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Nov 28-Dec 2 2022	753	1416	583	681
Dec 26-Dec 30 2022	751	1325	573	679
Jan 23-Jan 27 2023	754	1237	523	630
Feb 20-Feb 24 2023	741	1124	470	554
Mar 20-Mar 24 2023	740	1036	429	514
Apr 17-21 2023	740	995	423	507
May 15-19 2023	739	895	421	514
June 12-16 2023	737	781	406	476
July 10-14 2023	730	734	393	465
Aug 7-Aug 11 2023	714	634	369	400
Sep 4-8 2023	611	693	356	390
Oct 2-6 2023	609	790	354	414
Oct 30-Nov 3 2023	611	826	358	415
Nov 27-Dec 1 2023	595	847	341	409

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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