DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue to shift lower according to prices tracked by DTN for the first full week of February 2023. This trend has been since the last week of December 2022.

As has been the case in the last several weeks, seven of the eight major fertilizers are lower compared to last month. Of these seven, four fertilizers were noticeably lower looking back to last month. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

Leading the way lower are UAN32 and UAN28 once again. Both liquid nitrogen fertilizers were 11% lower in price compared to last month. UAN28 had an average price of $499/ton while UAN32 was at $579/ton.

UAN28 is below the $500/ton level for the first time since the fourth week of October 2021. That week the average price was $458/ton.

Potash was 7% less expensive a month with an average price of $694/ton. Urea was 5% lower compared to last month with an average price of $693/ton.

Potash dropped below $700/ton level for the first time since the first week of October 2021. That week potash's price was $675/ton.

Three fertilizers were slightly lower compared to the prior month. DAP had an average price of $840/ton, MAP $857/ton and anhydrous $1,220/ton.

One fertilizer was just slightly higher in price compared to a month earlier. 10-34-0 had an average price of $755/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.75/lb.N, anhydrous $0.74/lb.N, UAN28 $0.89/lb.N and UAN32 $0.90/lb.N.

Wholesale fertilizer prices continue to fall much like retail fertilizer prices. In the DTN Fertilizer Outlook column, author Logan Garcia said nitrogen prices in January have reset with prices falling sharply to open 2023 (https://www.dtnpf.com/…). The fall was attributed to a lack of demand across fertilizer products as well as further reduction in European natural gas prices last month.

The domestic ammonia market has been mostly quiet in January. The local ammonia market is fairly stable ahead of an anticipated price reset, which would arrive in February.

"In the short term, we see the US ammonia market as softer with further price reductions expected before direct application could take off in March/April," Garcia wrote.

The outlook for urea is also softer with the potential to stabilize once buyers return to the market for spring product. The outlook for UAN in the US is stable in the short term, pending further developments in the urea and ammonia markets, which might necessitate further price adjustments again.

All fertilizers are now lower in price compared to a year ago by the following percentages: DAP (4%), MAP (8%), 10-34-0 (9%), potash (15%), both UAN28 and UAN32 (17%), anhydrous (18%) and urea (24%).

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

A North Dakota State University Extension agricultural finance specialist said while fertilizers' prices are not at record high levels they are still above the five-year average. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Dry
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Feb 7-11 2022	876	935	815	905
Mar 7-11 2022	919	955	822	901
Apr 4-8 2022	1040	1056	875	1031
May 2-6 2022	1057	1081	881	1001
May 30-Jun 3 2022	1056	1079	880	979
Jun 27-Jul 1 2022	1039	1053	885	867
Jul 25-20 2022	1005	1041	887	836
Aug 22-26 2022	972	1026	880	804
Sep 19-23 2022	950	1005	875	811
Oct 17-21 2022	930	986	863	826
Nov 14-18 2022	930	978	848	812
Dec 12-Dec 16 2022	902	939	807	779
Jan 9-Jan 13 2023	868	875	742	732
Feb 6-Feb 10 2023	840	857	694	693
Liquid
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Feb 7-11 2022	827	1487	600	699
Mar 7-11 2022	866	1490	603	704
Apr 4-8 2022	901	1534	629	729
May 2-6 2022	906	1534	631	730
May 30-Jun 3 2022	905	1529	633	731
Jun 27-Jul 1 2022	904	1466	611	702
Jul 25-20 2022	894	1431	596	693
Aug 22-26 2022	869	1331	575	676
Sep 19-23 2022	860	1376	578	670
Oct 17-21 2022	759	1419	576	678
Nov 14-18 2022	753	1415	584	681
Dec 12-Dec 16 2022	750	1415	579	682
Jan 9-Jan 13 2023	754	1245	563	650
Feb 6-Feb 10 2023	755	1220	499	579

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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