DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

UAN Fertilizers Again Lead Prices Lower

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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UAN28 and UAN32 again led decreases in fertilizer prices this week, with both dropping 11% compared to last month. UAN28 had an average price of $499/ton; UAN32 was at $579/ton. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue to shift lower according to prices tracked by DTN for the first full week of February 2023. This trend has been since the last week of December 2022.

As has been the case in the last several weeks, seven of the eight major fertilizers are lower compared to last month. Of these seven, four fertilizers were noticeably lower looking back to last month. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

Leading the way lower are UAN32 and UAN28 once again. Both liquid nitrogen fertilizers were 11% lower in price compared to last month. UAN28 had an average price of $499/ton while UAN32 was at $579/ton.

UAN28 is below the $500/ton level for the first time since the fourth week of October 2021. That week the average price was $458/ton.

Potash was 7% less expensive a month with an average price of $694/ton. Urea was 5% lower compared to last month with an average price of $693/ton.

Potash dropped below $700/ton level for the first time since the first week of October 2021. That week potash's price was $675/ton.

Three fertilizers were slightly lower compared to the prior month. DAP had an average price of $840/ton, MAP $857/ton and anhydrous $1,220/ton.

One fertilizer was just slightly higher in price compared to a month earlier. 10-34-0 had an average price of $755/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.75/lb.N, anhydrous $0.74/lb.N, UAN28 $0.89/lb.N and UAN32 $0.90/lb.N.

Wholesale fertilizer prices continue to fall much like retail fertilizer prices. In the DTN Fertilizer Outlook column, author Logan Garcia said nitrogen prices in January have reset with prices falling sharply to open 2023 (https://www.dtnpf.com/…). The fall was attributed to a lack of demand across fertilizer products as well as further reduction in European natural gas prices last month.

The domestic ammonia market has been mostly quiet in January. The local ammonia market is fairly stable ahead of an anticipated price reset, which would arrive in February.

"In the short term, we see the US ammonia market as softer with further price reductions expected before direct application could take off in March/April," Garcia wrote.

The outlook for urea is also softer with the potential to stabilize once buyers return to the market for spring product. The outlook for UAN in the US is stable in the short term, pending further developments in the urea and ammonia markets, which might necessitate further price adjustments again.

All fertilizers are now lower in price compared to a year ago by the following percentages: DAP (4%), MAP (8%), 10-34-0 (9%), potash (15%), both UAN28 and UAN32 (17%), anhydrous (18%) and urea (24%).

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

A North Dakota State University Extension agricultural finance specialist said while fertilizers' prices are not at record high levels they are still above the five-year average. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Dry
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Feb 7-11 2022 876 935 815 905
Mar 7-11 2022 919 955 822 901
Apr 4-8 2022 1040 1056 875 1031
May 2-6 2022 1057 1081 881 1001
May 30-Jun 3 2022 1056 1079 880 979
Jun 27-Jul 1 2022 1039 1053 885 867
Jul 25-20 2022 1005 1041 887 836
Aug 22-26 2022 972 1026 880 804
Sep 19-23 2022 950 1005 875 811
Oct 17-21 2022 930 986 863 826
Nov 14-18 2022 930 978 848 812
Dec 12-Dec 16 2022 902 939 807 779
Jan 9-Jan 13 2023 868 875 742 732
Feb 6-Feb 10 2023 840 857 694 693
Liquid
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Feb 7-11 2022 827 1487 600 699
Mar 7-11 2022 866 1490 603 704
Apr 4-8 2022 901 1534 629 729
May 2-6 2022 906 1534 631 730
May 30-Jun 3 2022 905 1529 633 731
Jun 27-Jul 1 2022 904 1466 611 702
Jul 25-20 2022 894 1431 596 693
Aug 22-26 2022 869 1331 575 676
Sep 19-23 2022 860 1376 578 670
Oct 17-21 2022 759 1419 576 678
Nov 14-18 2022 753 1415 584 681
Dec 12-Dec 16 2022 750 1415 579 682
Jan 9-Jan 13 2023 754 1245 563 650
Feb 6-Feb 10 2023 755 1220 499 579

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

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Russ Quinn