DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail fertilizer prices moved lower again the last week of January 2023, continuing a trend that has been present since just before the beginning of the year, according to retailers surveyed by DTN.

Once again, seven of the eight major fertilizers are less expensive compared to last month. Of these seven, five were markedly lower compared to last month. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

Leading the way lower are UAN32 and UAN28. UAN32 was 13% lower in price compared to last month and had an average price of $583 per ton. UAN28 was 10% less expensive looking back a month and had an average price of $518/ton.

UAN32 is below the $600/ton level for the first time since the fourth week of October 2021. That week the average price was $522/ton.

A trio of fertilizers are 6% less expensive compared to last month. Potash had an average price of $704/ton, urea $698/ton and anhydrous $1,223/ton.

Urea is below the $700/ton level for the first time since the first week of October 2021. That week urea's price was $653/ton.

DAP and MAP were just slightly lower in price looking back a month. DAP had an average price of $847/ton while MAP was at $862/ton.

One fertilizer was just slightly higher in price compared to a month earlier. 10-34-0 had an average price of $754/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.76/lb.N, anhydrous $0.75/lb.N, UAN28 $0.93/lb.N and UAN32 $0.91/lb.N.

In a presentation at the University of Minnesota Extension's Nitrogen Conference held in Mankato on Tuesday, Bryon Parman, North Dakota State University Extension agricultural finance specialist, spoke about the economics of fertilizers in 2023. Fertilizers, much like ag chemicals and diesel prices, peaked last year and have backed off those highs in recent months.

Fertilizer prices are no longer at the all-time highs they were, but prices are still well above the five-year average. The fertilizer market tends to rise in the spring with more demand present, so growers waiting for even lower fertilizer prices might be out of luck, he said.

"I think seasonality demand could push fertilizer prices higher as we get closer to spring," Parman said.

Parman said many factors pushed retail fertilizer prices higher the last couple of years. These factors include logistical concerns, the COVID-19 pandemic, shipping issues, fertilizer plant shutdowns overseas and trucking shortages.

He said he gets asked quite a bit when fertilizer prices will go lower. His answer is always the same.

"They will move lower at some point; we just don't know when it will be," he said.

All fertilizers are now lower compared to one year ago. DAP is 3% less expensive, MAP is 8% lower, 10-34-0 is 9% less expensive, potash is 13% lower, UAN28 is 14% less expensive, UAN32 is 17% lower, anhydrous 18% less expensive and urea is 23% lower compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

Grain producers should consider several different factors when thinking about how to apply fertilizer to rented versus owned farmland. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DTN recently published a series titled "Global Fertilizer Outlook". Here are links to those articles:

To see Global Fertilizer Outlook - 1, go to:

https://www.dtnpf.com/…

To see Global Fertilizer Outlook - 2, go to:

https://www.dtnpf.com/…

To see Global Fertilizer Outlook - 3, go to:

https://www.dtnpf.com/…

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Jan 31-Feb 4 2022	877	933	813	905
Feb 28-Mar 4 2022	879	937	815	887
Mar 28-Apr 1 2022	1033	1045	868	1022
Apr 25-29 2022	1049	1082	881	1004
May 23-27 2022	1056	1082	879	989
Jun 20-Jun 24 2022	1040	1058	885	902
Jul 18-22 2022	1007	1043	887	836
Aug 15-19 2022	978	1026	881	807
Sep 12-16 2022	952	1009	877	808
Oct 10-14 2022	925	986	863	824
Nov 7-11 2022	931	980	853	812
Dec 5-Dec 9 2022	920	950	819	784
Jan 2-Jan 6 2023	876	879	752	739
Jan 30-Feb 3 2023	847	862	704	698
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Jan 31-Feb 4 2022	826	1487	600	699
Feb 28-Mar 4 2022	837	1487	603	703
Mar 28-Apr 1 2022	896	1526	637	711
Apr 25-29 2022	906	1534	631	730
May 23-27 2022	906	1531	634	731
Jun 20-Jun 24 2022	905	1497	616	716
Jul 18-22 2022	894	1431	598	696
Aug 15-19 2022	878	1336	576	676
Sep 12-16 2022	861	1369	578	665
Oct 10-14 2022	759	1417	576	670
Nov 7-11 2022	758	1434	582	680
Dec 5-Dec 9 2022	751	1415	581	681
Jan 2-Jan 6 2023	754	1302	573	673
Jan 30-Feb 3 2023	754	1223	518	583

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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