Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $2.25 lower at $63.31. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to be down with the spot-month contract once again testing support at $61.49, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $45.19 through the high of $69.22. Though weekly stochastics remain bearish, the market could look to post a minor rally to test its recent high, setting up a potential double-top formation. If not, next support is pegged at the 50% retracement level of $57.41.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.17 lower at $59.13. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with the spot-month contract holding between resistance at $58.60 and $65.41. These prices mark the 23.6% and 33% retracement levels of the previous secondary downtrend from $112.24 through the low of $42.03. Support is at the new 4-week low of $56.51. Stochastics are holding above the overbought level of 80%, but did establish a bearish crossover at Friday's close. The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests reducing their net-long futures position by 8,473 contracts, due in large part to a reduction of long positions by 7,551 contracts.

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Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 8.57cts lower at $1.8696. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways-to-up, with the spot-month contract holding below initial resistance at $1.9841. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.2633 through the low of $1.5890. Trendline support is pegged at $1.7347 this week, well below last Friday's closing price. Weekly stochastics are neutral-to-bullish.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 5.58cts lower at $2.0300. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to be sideways with the spot-month contract holding between resistance at $1.9620 and $2.1892. These prices mark the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $3.1520 through the low of $1.2265. While the major (long-term) trend is up, resistance on the monthly chart remains at $2.0869. This is the 38.2% retracement level of the previous major downtrend from $3.4789 through $1.2265 low.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 1.30cts higher at $1.5460. Indications are that the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, with the continued inverse in the market's forward curve implying a target range between $1.7785 and $1.9410. The recent sell-off looks to be a minor (short-term) downtrend resulting in a test of support at $1.5005. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the initial rally from $1.2920 through the high of $1.7090. The 67% retracement level is down at $1.4309.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 5.2cts lower at $2.590. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned sideways with weekly stochastics posting a bearish crossover below the overbought level of 80%. Resistance is the 4-week high of $3.115 while support remains at the recent low of $2.443.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 4.37cts lower at $0.3363. Cash propane moved to a new low of $0.2675 last week before rallying. Weekly stochastics are showing a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%, indicating a possible move to a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend in the coming weeks.

The weekly Commitments of Traders report showed positions held as of Tuesday, June 2.

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