Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.11, up 5 cents for the week. While technical indicators continue to show the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, seasonally the cash market tends to turn sideways through mid-November. This could lead to a short-term test of support at $2.93. Last Friday's national average basis was calculated at about 42 cents under the December contract, unchanged from the previous week.

Corn (Futures): The December contract closed 5.00cts higher at $3.53. The contract fell back from its test of technical resistance near $3.65, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $5.17 (high the week of April 7) through $3.18 1/4 (low the week of September 29). Given the market's seasonal tendency to trend sideways to down through late November, Dec corn could look to test support near $3.34.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.18, up 26 cents for the week. Technical indicators show the secondary (intermediate-term) trend to be up. Most notably, the island bottom formed with the gap down (week of Sept 15 low of $9.55, week of Sept 22 high of $9.15) and the recent gap up (week of Oct 6 high of $8.83, week of Oct 13 low of $8.85). Seasonally the market tends to trend sideways through November, meaning a possible test of technical support at $8.92 in the coming weeks. National average basis was unchanged for the week at 60 cents under the November futures contract.

Soybeans (Futures): The November contract closed 25.75cts higher at $9.77 1/2. Technical indicators continue to show the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up. However, the Nov contract found renewed selling interest after testing resistance at $9.92 1/2, a price that marks the 26.3% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $12.79 through the low of $9.04. Given the futures market's tendency to move sideways to down through mid-November, the Nov contract could test support at $9.53. Likewise, support in the Jan contract is pegged at $9.60 1/2 after closing last week at $9.83 1/4.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.79, up 5 cents for the week. Technical indicators continue to show the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up, most notably a bullish island reversal between the gap down (week of Sept 8 low of $4.57, week of Sep 15 high of $4.55) and gap up (week of Sep 29 high of $4.39, week of Oct 6 low of $4.44). Given the market's seasonal tendency to move sideways to down through late November, the SR.X could test support between $4.56 and $4.46. Resistance remains at $4.93. Friday's national average basis was calculated at 39 cents under the December futures contract, 3 cents stronger for the week.

SRW Wheat (Futures): The December Chicago contract closed 1.75cts higher at $5.17 3/4. Last week saw the Dec Chicago contract test resistance at $5.36 3/4, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $7.65 through the recent low of $4.66 1/4, before falling back. Given the futures market's tendency to move lower through November, the contract could test support between $5.02 3/4 and $4.90 1/2. These prices mark the 50% and 67% retracement levels of the uptrend from the $4.66 1/4 low through last week's high of $5.39 1/4.

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