Technically Speaking

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $2.84, down 5 cents for the week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) and major (long-term) trends remain down, the cash market's 5-year and 10-year seasonal indexes show the low close for the marketing year tend to occur with last Friday's settlement. National average basis (versus the September 2015 futures contract) of 77 cents under is below the 5-year low for last week of 68 cents under, and near the weakest basis for any week over the last 5-years of 82 cents under.

Corn (Futures): The December contract closed 0.25ct higher. While technical indicators show the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down, the December contract could stabilize ahead of Friday's October round of USDA reports. Weekly stochastics remain bearish but deep in single-digits indicating a sharply oversold situation. Meanwhile, last Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests adding to their net-long futures position. Seasonally the market tends to post a low the first weekly close of October (last Friday) before rallying roughly 6% through the last weekly close of the month. If realized this year, the December would be near $3.42 at month's end.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $8.50, down 9 cents for the week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) and major (long-term) trends remain down, stochastics for both (weekly, monthly respectively) show the cash market to be sharply oversold. Seasonally, both the 5-year and 10-year indexes show the cash market tends to post a low with last week's settlement. The NSI.X tends to rally 5% through October's final weekly close, putting a possible price target near $8.92. However, national average basis continues to weaken, with last Friday's calculated 62 cents under (the November contract) below the 50-year average of 57 cents under.

Soybeans (Futures): The November contract closed 2.00cts higher. Despite the higher close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. Weekly stochastics deep in the single digits continue to indicate the market is sharply oversold. The carry in the November to January futures spread closed at 8 1/4 cents, reflecting light support from the commercial side of the market last week. Seasonally the futures market tends to post a low with the firs weekly close of October (last Friday) before rallying 4% through the end of the month. If realized this year, the November could post a close the last Friday of October near $9.50.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.38, up 12 1/2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to have turned up with the establishment of a confirming bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% by weekly stochastics. The initial bullish crossover was posted the week of July 29, 2014. If the cash market can build bullish momentum its initial upside target is near $5.20.

SRW Wheat (Futures): The December Chicago contract closed 11.50cts higher. Last week's higher close led to a bullish crossover by weekly stochastics, below the oversold level of 20%. This combination indicates the secondary (intermediate-term) trend could now be viewed as up. If so, noncommercial traders may have to show more buying interests. Last Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed this group reducing their net-short futures position by 3,469 contracts, due to an increase in longs of 6,621 contracts offsetting an increase in shorts of 3,152 contracts.

Last Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders were report showed positions as of Tuesday, September 30.

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