Technically Speaking

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $2.89, down 13 cents for the week. This is the lowest weekly close since the $2.8251 posted the week of August 31, 2009. Beyond that is the $2.6890 from the week of December 1, 2008. National average basis continues to trend down, weakening another 5 cents to 34 cents under the December futures contract. The NCI.X is also 70 cents under the September 2015 contract, the weakest it has been at this point in the marketing year compared to the previous 5-years.

Corn (Futures): The December contract closed 8.50cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) remains down with the weekly close of $3.23 putting the December contract in the lower 3% of the market's 5-year price distribution range (weekly close only). The sideways trend in the December to March futures spread (closing at a 12 3/4 cent carry) continues to cover a bearish 72% of total cost of carry (total cost of holding grain in commercial storage). Next major (long-term) support is pegged at the September 2009 low of $2.96 3/4, then the December 2008 low of $2.90.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $8.60, down $0.95 for the week. This is the lowest weekly close for the NSI.X since $8.4335 the week of September 28, 2009. National average basis (NSI.X - November futures contract) continues to collapse, falling to 51 cents under at Friday's close, or 49 cents weaker for the week. Seasonally the NSI.X establishes a low the first weekly close of October (next week).

Soybeans (Futures): The November contract closed 46.75cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with the November contract closing ($9.10 1/4) near its new low of $9.09 3/4. While weekly stochastics are well below the 20% level, indicating futures to be sharply oversold (the November closed in the lower percentages of the 5-year price distribution range), pressure continues to come from both commercial and noncommercial traders. The November to January futures spread closed at a carry of 8 1/2 cents, roughly 57% of total cost of carry (total cost of holding grain in commercial storage). While larger than previous weeks, this continues to reflect a neutral view of short-term supply and demand.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.25, down 3 cents for the week. The SR.X looks to be stabilizing as it approaches its seasonal low with the close the first week of October (next week). The close of $4.25 is the lowest weekly settlement for the SR.X since $4.2366 the week of June 21, 2010. National average basis continues to weaken with Friday's SR.X losing 2 cents to the December futures contract for the week.

SRW Wheat (Futures): The December Chicago contract closed 0.25ct lower. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down, the December contract looks to be stabilizing. Weekly stochastics are bearish, well below the oversold level of 20%, in position for an eventual bullish crossover. However, last week's low of $4.66 1/4 is still well above price support at $4.25 1/2, the low from June 2010.

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