South America Calling

After a two-week delay to the start of the wet season and soybean planting, producers in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest production state of both soybeans and corn, have pushed hard and made up ground due to good weather.

Daily rains scattered across the region have been heavier than normal for October and softened soils enough to make for better planting conditions, as well as give enough moisture for germination. Therefore, producers really got out in earnest.

According to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA), what was a terrible start to the planting season has come back to a normal pace. The total completed planting has progressed to 79.56% in a report released Nov. 1, compared to the five-year average of 79.11%. Two weeks ago, planting progress was only at 25% compared to the five-year average of 45%.

That means producers in the state have planted roughly 55% of their intended acreage in just two weeks. This is a remarkable feat that puts soybean planting within the normal window. It also releases the threat of a significant delay to not only the soybean crop, which would develop normally despite the delays, but also to the second-season (safrinha) corn crop, which will be planted in late January and February.

Under normal conditions, timely planting of the safrinha corn crop exposes less of it to the dry season that starts in late April or early May. Producers there try to make it through pollination while rain is actively falling, then rely on built-up soil moisture for kernel fill and to finish the crop. To do this, roughly 80% of the crop must be planted by Nov. 1. Producers just accomplished that feat.

The weather continues to be favorable with widespread showers and thunderstorms in the region for the next couple of weeks. Models vary on intensity, but generally agree on 75 to 125 millimeters (roughly 3 to 5 inches) of rain through Nov. 11 throughout central Brazil. That should be more than enough rainfall to continue keeping soils moist while soybeans develop and build moisture deep into the column after months of dryness had produced a significant drought to start the season.

Though producers have caught up and the weather outlook is favorable with continuing showers the next couple of weeks, neither the soybean nor the safrinha corn crops are out of the woods just yet. A developing La Nina, the cool side to the El Nino Southern Oscillation that signifies below-normal sea-surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, could bring about some wild weather through the Southern Hemisphere summer and fall seasons. While mostly affecting Argentina and southern Brazil, bringing these areas hotter and drier conditions, La Nina can sometimes shift the zone where wet season showers occur. It also tends to shorten the length of the wet season, sometimes by three weeks. That is not guaranteed, but something that producers and markets will be watching closely.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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