South America Calling

It started about two weeks late, but good rainfall over the past 7 to 10 days has allowed soybean planting in central Brazil to start taking off. DTN estimates in the time frame of Oct. 11-17, Mato Grosso -- and really all of central Brazil -- has seen rainfall of 20-50 millimeters (0.78-1.96 inches). Only small pockets of the state have not seen rain or saw amounts less than 10 millimeters (0.4 inches), and some areas have seen more than 75 millimeters (about 3 inches).

The late rainfall has delayed planting significantly. Before the rains came in on Oct. 10, just 8.8% of the total acreage for soybeans had been planted in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest production state of both corn and soybeans according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA). That was behind the average pace of 23.7% over the last five years, and 35% in 2023.

Since the rain has materialized, soybean planting has increased significantly. However, the pace is not enough to make up ground from the late planting. IMEA data released Oct. 18 showed planting progress had increased 16 percentage points up to 25% planted. However, this compares to 44% on average and 60% last year -- jumps of 21% and 25%, respectively. It appears some producers are still waiting on more substantial rain to bolster their planting.

Producers have two weeks until planting is considered "late". Any soybeans planted after Nov. 1 will be harvested in late February or early March. When corn is planted immediately afterward (the second-season or safrinha crop), it typically cannot make it through pollination before wet season rains shut down in late April or early May. If producers keep the current pace, only 45% of the soybean crop will be planted on time, with roughly half of the crop considered late. If producers can push it to last year's accelerated pace, still 25% of the crop will be planted late, and more so than the typical 20%.

Adding in the developing La Nina into the equation can make this even more dire. Cooler ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean can shorten the length of the wet season. Though it is not expected to be a strong La Nina, there can still be effects. The 2020-2021 season had such an effect. Rains began around the same time, around Oct. 10, 2020, but shut down early, in mid-April 2021 and resulted in a wet season that was three to four weeks shorter than average. The soybean crop was a record at the time, but the safrinha corn crop, which comprises about 75% of Brazil's production, suffered greatly. The delayed plantings led to the corn crop pollinating with 40-degree Celsius (104-degree Fahrenheit) temperatures and only subsoil moisture to work with. The filling of the kernels was extended deep into June. Three rounds of horrific, widespread frosts also damaged the crop that year thanks to La Nina. We cannot be certain that 2025 will mirror what occurred in 2021, but it does throw up more caution flags if producers cannot get the soybean crop planted at a more rapid pace than they are currently on.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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