South America Calling

It hasn't gotten any better. Very dry conditions in central Brazil have been the mainstay for the last several months. Parts of the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest producer of corn and soybeans, have not seen a drop of rain in more than five months.

This is not entirely unusual. It is the dry season, after all. But with temperatures consistently above normal all winter long and near or over the 40-degree Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) mark many times during the course of the last few months, soil moisture essentially does not exist in the state, or much of the region as a whole.

As Kory Melby points out on his X page here: https://twitter.com/…, it is a tough go for farmers and residents of the state where water supplies are short and wildfires are raging, spreading choking smoke to these areas as well. (https://apnews.com/….)

In other words, the rain needs to start and it needs to start ASAP. Sometimes during the dry season, fronts coming northward can bring some occasional showers or light rain. But fronts, which have been frequent during the last couple of months, have not produced any rainfall north of Campo Grande in Mato Grosso do Sul, or Belo Horizonte in Minas Gerais. There is a lot of land in these areas that need good rainfall even before the wet season rains begin. However, the developing La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, the cool side of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), could play a role in delaying that start.

Typically, the cooler Pacific waters have a delaying effect on the start of wet season rains in central Brazil. On average, it is about a week late, moving from the last few days of September into the first few days of October. In most years, showers start spotty, then increase throughout October. Producers here cannot afford that to be the case, but there is not a lot of hope. Short- and medium-range model runs have no precipitation getting far enough north from fronts before the wet season rains start up. And the long-range models agree with the La Nina tendency, delaying that first 25 millimeters (1 inch) of rainfall into October. And 25 mm won't cut it when soils are this dry and temperatures are this hot. The rains need to start and be consistent for planting soybeans. If significant delays occur, that may have an effect on the soybean crop, but will more significantly affect the safrinha (second-season) corn and cotton crops.

What producers in central Brazil try to accomplish is to get soybeans planted in late September or early October, harvest them in late January or early February, immediately plant the safrinha crop, then try to get it through pollination before the wet season rains shut down in late April or early May.

If they can accomplish that feat, they usually end up with a good soybean crop and a fairly good corn or cotton crop.

If there are delays, that puts the safrinha crop at risk for drying out too early, especially with excessive temperatures up near the 40-degree C mark when the rains shut down. This situation bears close watching, as any drop in production in South America, and especially central Brazil, could increase the volatility in commodity markets.

To find more international weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, visit https://www.dtnpf.com/….

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Want to hear more about weather in North and South America? If you're planning to attend Husker Harvest Days in Grand Island, Nebraska, be sure and check out the DTN building to learn more about our latest products and efforts. You'll also want to sit in on our weather and markets outlooks from DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick and DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman. The outlook sessions are at 10 a.m. CDT and 2 p.m. CDT on Sept. 10 and 11. On Sept. 12 we'll have a weather outlook at 10 a.m. Hultman will cover the USDA WASDE report, which comes out at 11, and host a webinar discussion about the report at 12:30. To register for the free webinar, go to https://www.dtn.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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