South America Calling

Excellent yields across the south of Brazil and strong results in the center-west states of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul prompted Agroconsult, a local farm analytics firm, to raise its 2014-15 soybean forecast to 95.8 million metric tons (mmt).

The forecast represents an 11% jump on the previous record crop produced in 2013-14 and is higher than most market numbers that sit in a range between 91 mmt and 95 mmt.

"Drought did affect crops but in lesser-producing regions. The big soybean areas produced extremely well," Andre Pessoa, director of Agroconsult, told a press conference in Sao Paulo Wednesday.

Pessoa was presenting the finding from Agroconsult's Rally da Safra crop tour, which has visited all the soybean-producing regions over the last two months.

The south is notoriously susceptible to summer dry spells, but rain fell consistently throughout the season in 2014-15, and the increased use of high-potential, short-cycle beans paid dividends.

Yields would have been even higher had it not been for pressure from Asian rust over the last few weeks in Rio Grande do Sul, the No. 3 state. Still, the state will register record yields of 2,950 kg per hectare.

Dry weather did cause problems in parts of Mato Grosso, the No. 1 producing state, but crops mostly produced well, with average yields of 3,186 kg per ha, 3.7% higher than last year for the state.

The impact of drought was more serious in the states of Goias, Bahia and Minas Gerais, as well as Piaui, where crops got no moisture for between 20 and 40 days around January. But these areas across the east of the soybean belt produce much less than the western strip.

Agroconsult pegs overall 2014-15 corn production at 79.4 mmt, down marginally from the 80.1 mmt produced last year.

Good summer corn yields in the south partially offset the decline in planted area. Production is pegged at 29.0 mmt, down from 31.7 mmt last year.

(AG)

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