Sort & Cull

More than 2,000 years ago, so the story goes, a nervy soothsayer stopped Julius Caesar on his way to the forum with a chilling warning that continues to echo through history: "Beware the Ides of March."

Several hours later, Caesar lay lifeless in a pool of his own blood, a dagger deeply sheathed between two imperial kidneys.

It was definitely not a good day at the office.

With the CME playing the role of the bearish fortuneteller, cattle traders had the unfortunate privilege Friday of reenacting a gruesome version of that infamous scene.

Beef producers have been unnerved for weeks by sluggish product movement and the relative ineffectiveness of tight supplies of market ready animals in pushing live prices higher. For example, boxed beef movement for the week totaled no more than 610 loads, the smallest round of business -- including holiday weeks -- in more than a decade.

Yet I think most cattle feeders were nonetheless shocked by the utter implosion of late-week futures (new contract lows were set on Friday from coast to coast) and the further erosion in feedlot business (live sales lost $1, dressed deals faltered $2-$3).

Maybe it was just the same old lesson learned too late by Julie C: Forewarned is not forearmed.

If the Roman emperor was helpless in the face of lean and ambitious conspirators, cattle feeders are now feeling as defenseless in the presence of negative demand (Et tu, demand?).

For while producers can do much to shape the market force of supply through placement activity and pace of marketing, they are as powerless as legionnaires trying to cork Mount Vesuvius when it comes to managing beef demand.

The cash and futures clearly lie slain at center stage as the mid-March curtain falls, and there's not a doubt in the house concerning the name of the asinine. Blame the sequester, the economy, or even global warming if you want to. Regretfully, explaining sorry demand does little to fix it.

I can only hope this only marks the conclusion of Act I and not the end of the play. At least the calendar is promising in that regard.

While the Ides of March was definitely a downer, there's still time (beef buyers typically don't turn active until after Easter) for decent grilling demand to bullishly commingle with historically snug fed offerings.

The way Shakespeare tells it, Brutus eventually falls on his sword, returning honor and order through the land. At this point, I'd be happy with a $4-$6 rally between now and Memorial Day.

For more John Harrington comments, visit http://www.feelofthemarket.com/…

(AG)

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