Market Matters Blog

OMAHA (DTN) -- Whether farmers agree with USDA's projection of a 163.6 bushel per acre average corn yield depends on where they farm, a recent DTN 360 poll shows.

Overall, only 18% of respondents said they thought an average corn yield of 160 or more is realistic in their area, while nearly 24% thought a yield between 150 and 154 bpa was more reasonable. The highest yield expectations showed up east of the Mississippi River, where winter moisture has largely erased drought, while the states in the west still face a short soil moisture situation going into planting.

Between March 1 and March 8, 465 people responded to DTN's poll question: USDA projected an average corn yield of 163.6 bpa at the Ag Outlook Forum, an estimate based on trends and averages, not current conditions. Coming off 2012's drought and given the moisture conditions going into planting, what do you think is a more realistic average yield estimate in your area?

"We see very little pessimism on yield prospects in the 3-I states," DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson said. "I think especially in Illinois and Indiana due to better precipitation over the winter. And in the north, Minnesota and Wisconsin also show a more optimistic idea on yield projections. After all, Minnesota came in No. 2 in U.S. corn production last year, and Wisconsin had a very good year as well."

In Illinois, 39% of the 55 respondents think a 160+ bpa yield is reasonable, while 17% and 16% think 150-154 bpa and 145-149 bpa are more likely respectively. Minnesota and Wisconsin's responses fall heavily into this middle range.

Iowans' responses, on the other hand, are more diversified, with the largest percentage (29%) of the 73 responses falling into the low 150s category. Ohio is heavily weighted on the top end, with more than 70% of the responses thinking yields will be above 150 bpa.

Farmers in the Dakotas, Nebraska and Kansas weren’t as sanguine about their yield prospects. Of Nebraska's 46 responses, more than 60% think yield potential is below 144 bpa.

"We certainly see how the effects of drought influence yield expectations," Anderson said. "In Ohio, the smallest yield expectation is in the 135-139 range whereas Kansas has almost half the responses pegging yields at 129 or less, and Nebraska and the Dakotas are around 40% at less than 140 bushels per acre projection."

For historical perspective, here are the last three years of average yield data for the states highlighted in the chart above.