Fundamentally Speaking

The corn market is on fire with the December contract poised to take out the May 13 high of $5.06 1/2 due to a combination of positive looking charts, war premium from conflicts in Black Sea and Strait of Hormuz, and bullish figures being released from this week's Pro-Farmer crop tour fueling a large amount of fund buying.

Trade is now seriously contemplating a 2026 national yield below 178 bushels per acre (bpa) vs. the last USDA estimate of 180.7 bpa and ending stocks south of 1.40 billion bushels (bb).

One thing we note is despite better growing weather this month than last, corn weekly condition reports through August have not improved and in fact have deteriorated further.

Using our usual ratings system (where we weigh the percent of the crop excellent 10 points, that in good condition 8 points, fair 6 points, poor 4 and very poor 2 and sum the results), this chart shows this year's week 33 rating and the 25-year average on the right-hand axis.

Reported on the left-hand axis is the change in the 2026 week 33 rating vs. the rating one month ago and the week 33 2025 rating.

CO has the worst rated crop at 494, off 29.0% from its 25-year average and that is down 102 points from last month and 180 points off the year ago rating.

All the Plains states have taken a huge hit over the past month given record heat and very dry conditions through July.

KS is down 100 points from last month, ND down 112, SD down 80 and TX 58 points lower.

Even some of the northern states that had been doing well, such as MI down 72 points, MN down 60 and WI down 54, have seen their corn ratings fall rather substantially.

The best crop is in PA, 13.4% above average at 848, and then TN, 11.9% above average at 812.

The U.S. crop right now is 1% below average at 707 though that is down 38 points over the past month and 58 points from last year.

There are just seven states that have improved but just modestly while KY, MI, OH and PA are the only states that have week 33 ratings above the year ago levels.

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.