Fundamentally Speaking

This graphic shows the highest, lowest, 2021 and average percent change in corn acreage from the March prospective plantings report to the June acreage figures on the left-hand axis along with the standard deviation of these changes on the right-hand axis from 2000 to 2021 for the top 18 producing states and the U.S.

Looking at the average percent change, though the 22-year U.S. average acreage change between the March intentions and the June acreage report is close to unchanged, interestingly all of the 18 top states see an average decline in planted area from the March intentions to the June acreage report.

The largest percent decline is seen in Pennsylvania which is the smallest of the 18 states as on average June acreage is 26% lower than what PA farmers indicated in the March report, but a lot of that states corn goes to silage and that is also true of WI where June acreage averages 18.4% below the March intentions.

We pay particular attention to the northern states where weather can influence actual seedings and along these lines both North and South Dakota are averaging an 8.4% drop between the March intentions and June acreage report often see intended corn acreage plans go for naught.

On the other hand, the bigger producing states see much lower average declines from March to June.

As to be expected, North Dakota has the highest standard deviation or has the highest volatility in March to June acreage declines of 12.4% followed up by PA.

Speaking of North Dakota, as opposed to last year when corn plantings proceeded especially quick with little prevent planting seen linked to the very dry conditions up in that region of the country where 2021 ND corn area increased by 9% between the March and June reports, this year like in 2019 and 2020 should feature a large drop in corn seedings given the record slow planting pace in that state seen this past spring.

In 2019 for instance ND corn seedings fell by 8.6% from the 3/31 intentions to the 6/30 acreage report and then tumbled a stunning 25% a year later.

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