Grain and oilseed markets have given up a lot of weather premium over the past two weeks, but we imagine quite a bit will be added back in after Wednesday's bullish USDA reports.
Both corn and soybean planted acreage was far less than expected while the 6/1 quarterly stocks for both were also less than anticipated.
Although corn area did rise from the 3/31 prospective plantings report, the big increase was in the part of the country where growing conditions are the worst, the Dakotas.
As we have noted a number of times, for a variety of reasons row crop seedings in the Dakotas have increased markedly over the years linked to higher yielding, shorter season varieties of corn and soybeans needed up there, better returns from those two crops as opposed to other crops that used to be seeded, subsidized crop insurance and more oilseed processing and ethanol plants in that area contributing to stronger basis levels than seen in the past.
This graphic shows the total combined corn and soybean area in North and South Dakota in 1000 acres on the right-hand axis and these figures as a percent of the total U.S. planted acreage of each crop on the left-hand axis.
Wednesday's June Acreage report showed 9.60 million acres of corn planted in the Dakotas, up a huge 39% from the year ago figure which was depressed by exceptionally wet weather and is the second highest combined corn area in the Dakotas next to 2017 when it was 10.050 million acres and that accounted for 10.5% of total U.S. corn area vs. today's figure of 10.4%, the second highest and actually a higher percent than seen in the March intentions report.
Meanwhile combined soybean area of 12.70 million acres is also up an impressive 19% vs. the 2020 seedings and is the second highest combined area ever next to the 12.75 million acres planted in 2017 but this year's figure represents 14.5% of all soybeans seeded in the U.S. which is the highest ever, even above 2017's 14.1%.
With USDA reporting in its latest crop progress and condition report that just 41% of North Dakota's corn is rated good or excellent and a mere 24% in South Dakota with the respective bean ratings 25% in ND and 26% in SD one must wonder about the depressing impact this could have on the national corn and bean yields given this high percentage of row crop plantings in the most stressed region in the country.
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