Fundamentally Speaking

Joel Karlin
DTN Contributing Analyst

There has been a lot of talk on how delayed corn plantings this year may have an adverse impact on yields with pollination pushed back toward the hottest part of summer and the possibility that plants may not be fully mature when the first of autumn freezes arrive.

On the other hand, the copious amounts of moisture resulting in these late seedings may actually enhance yield performance after last year’s drought.

There is also the likelihood of some intended corn acreage not being planted if this inclement weather lasts through May with some of the ground seeded to a crop that can be planted later in the year such as soybeans.

This graphic shows the percent of the U.S. corn crop planted by May 15 vs. the change in planted area of both U.S. corn and soybeans from the figures given in the USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report to their June Acreage numbers in 1000 acres.

The time series studied is 1980 to 2012 though we do exclude the 1983 season. This was the year of the Payment in Kind (PIK) program, where the USDA paid farmers not to plant in an effort to reduce the large grain and oilseed stockpiles that existed at that time.

This program and a cold wet spring that allowed only 45% of the corn to be planted by 5/15/83 resulted in the 1983 June Acreage numbers showing corn 22.0 million and soybeans 8.8 million acres below their respective 1982 June Acreage figures, the largest ever year to year declines in both.

The average planting percent as of May 15 from 1980-2012 is 72% and the standard deviation is 15% so we classify anything less than 57% seeded as of May 15 to be a late planted year.

Years that stand out include 1984 when only 39% of corn was planted by May 15 with corn acreage falling 1.8 million and soybeans rising 2.8 million.

There was also the infamous flood year of 1993 when only 37% of the crop was planted with corn acreage falling 2.2 mln and beans up a similar amount. 1995 when only 39% of corn was seeded by 5/15, planted area fell the most we have on our record from the March intentions to June report of 3.3 million while planted soybean area rose by 1.7 million.

Plantings were slow a year later at 56% but corn and soybean acreage both rose from the March numbers.

More recently was 2009 when only 58% of intended corn acreage was seeded by May 15 yet both corn and soybean area rose substantially from March to June.

Unless things change dramatically, it appears that by May 15 this year a very low amount of corn will have been planted though high crop insurance guarantees may keep farmers planting corn until late May when the prevented planting date provisions start kicking in.

A final note is the trend toward earlier plantings over the years resulting in a larger percent of the crop planted by May 15.

(KA)

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