Based on the USDA's recent estimates, global production of the nine major vegetable oils is to grow by 3.3% in 2023-24 to a record 223.3 million metric tons (mmt). This is down from the 4% increase in global production in 2022-23 from the previous year, while also below the five-year average percent change of 1.7%.
Eight of nine major vegetable oils are forecast to see increased production in 2023-24 from the previous year, with cottonseed oil the exception with production forecast to fall slightly. At the same time, production of all nine vegetable oils is to be above their respective five-year average, with rapeseed oil production in 2023-24 estimated to be 11.7% above average, the highest percentage above average seen for any of the nine vegetable oils.
Total consumption of the nine oils is forecast to grow by 3.5% in 2023-24 to 217.7 mmt, down from 3.8% calculated for 2022-23 and the first time in three years that the percentage growth in consumption has exceeded the percentage growth in production. It also exceeds the five-year average demand growth of 1.95%, which compares to the five-year average growth in production of 1.7%.
As seen on the attached chart, global production exceeds consumption by 5.652 mmt (green bar), which has fallen year-over-year for the first time in three years. This is also slightly greater than the five-year average of 5.343 mmt (production exceeding consumption).
As seen on the attached chart, the global stocks to use ratio is forecast to fall by 0.1 percentage point to 14.3% in 2023-24, while for a fourth year, is shown to drift mostly sideways from a low of 13.9% to a high of 14.4% (brown line with markers). While not shown, the stocks/use for rapeseed oil based on current estimates is 10.7%, the highest in three years and just slightly higher than the five-year average of 10.4%.
It is important to note that forecasts for 2023-24 include South American crops that are not yet seeded. There are also 50 weeks remaining in the 2023-24 crop year in Canada.
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