The United States soy complex faced a difficult week this week, with July soybeans, soybean oil and soymeal futures facing pressure in both old-crop and new-crop positions. At the same time, there were some positive signals of strength in the trade for competing oilseeds.
November canola gained $6.60/metric ton (1%) over the week for its first higher close in three weeks. August rapeseed settled EUR 16.75/mt or 3.8% higher for its first higher weekly close in three weeks. Rapeseed oil FOB Rotterdam closed $43.25/mt higher over the week, and July palm oil closed 3.9% higher for its first higher weekly close in three weeks.
In addition to a weekly gain realized in November canola trade, basis is also showing signs of strength. The adjacent chart shows the reported basis strength since the beginning of 2023 (blue bars) and over the past week (brown bars).
Since the beginning of the year, the Northern Alberta Region's basis for November delivery is leading the way by strengthening $14.24/mt, with Southern Alberta strengthening by $13.64/mt. Both regions are seen as the closest to West Coast ports, but also face increased competition from the domestic crush.
While PDQ data shows prairie canola basis for November weakening on Friday across all nine regions, there is strength seen over most of the prairies over the past week in addition to the higher close in the November contract. The exception is the Northern Alberta region and the Northeast Saskatchewan region that saw basis remain steady (or close to it) over the week. As well basis weakened modestly for both the Western Manitoba and Eastern Manitoba regions.
In advance of Statistics Canada's 2023 acreage estimates, based on March surveys and to be released on April 26, buyers are seen showing caution.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @Cliff Jamieson
(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.