Through the first six months of this crop year, or as of the end of January, Canada exported 1.0368 million metric tons of dry peas through licensed facilities, while according to the Canadian Grain Commission data, just 100 metric tons lower than the same period in 2017-18. Looking at the attached chart, this volume is close to the 1.0868 mmt shipped in the same five-month period in 2013-14, or five years ago.
Since the record 3.9 million metric tons was exported over the 2016-17 crop year, where cumulative licensed exports were shown at 2.022 mmt, as of January, as shown on the attached chart, the share of product shipped to India has declined sharply. It has fallen from 58.9% in the first six months of 2016-17 to just 5.7% in the current crop year's data, as shown by the trend in the black line.
The orange line on the track points to the share of product shipped to China over the first six months of the crop year; this has increased for four consecutive crop years, calculated at 65.5% in the first six months of 2018-19.
In the latest Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops report, the supply and demand estimates for February point to a 300,000-mt increase in expected dry pea exports, to 3.1 mmt for 2018-19, only modestly higher than the volume realized in 2017-18.
This estimate makes sense, given the current pace of movement. In 2017-18, licensed shipments as of week 30 accounted for 37.3% of the crop year's total exports, which projects to crop year exports of 3.2 mmt, given the 1.195 mmt shipped as of week 30. China's buying interest can also arrive later in the crop year, with 2017-18 data showing cumulative volumes shipped to China as of January, or the first one-half of the crop year, representing 42% of total shipments to China over the crop year.
This pace of movement is expected to see crop year ending stocks fall by 38%, to 400,000 mt, just slightly lower than the five-year average of 427,000 mt, while a relatively tight 10% of annual use.
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