As of week 17, or the week ending Nov. 25, the Canadian Grain Commission reports that producers have delivered a cumulative 20.310 million metric tons of all grains into the licensed handling system. This volume is 862,500 metric tons, or 4.4%, higher than the same week in 2017-18, while 7.2% higher than the five-year average.
By commodity, wheat deliveries have made the largest contribution to the year-over-year increase, with 7.204 mmt of wheat delivered, up 1.091 mmt or 17.8% from the same period in 2017-18. Producers have also delivered 243,000 mt more barley and 123,600 mt more lentils into the bulk handling system than the same period last crop year, as well as a modest increase in corn and canary seed deliveries. Meanwhile, producers have delivered less durum, rye, flax, canola, peas, mustard, beans and chickpeas into the licensed system. On a volume basis, producer deliveries of canola are 353,300 mt behind the year-ago pace, or down 5.1% overall.
The attached graphic shows the trend in weekly deliveries of all grains as of week 17, with the current crop year deliveries exceeding 2017-18 in 13 of the 17 shipping weeks reported by the CGC, including the past eight weeks. If 2017-18 is a reliable guide, weekly deliveries should hold above the 1-million-metric-ton level through week 20.
Over the past five years, an average of 35.5% of total crop year deliveries were realized as of week 17, a pace that would project forward to total crop year deliveries of 57.2 mmt this crop year, a record level that would exceed 2017-18 by close to 2 mmt and the five-year average by close to 4 mmt.
The country space situation remains viewed as good, with the current level of licensed stocks in the country down 4% from last year and only 1% higher than the three-year average. Current stocks are reported at 74% of the Grain Monitor's estimated working capacity, which ranges from 71% in Alberta to 90% in British Columbia, but points to a lack of concern overall.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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