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India's Government Releases 4th Advance Production Estimates

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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Tuesday's 4th Advance Estimates of crop production released by India's Agriculture Ministry saw the 2015/16 pulse production estimate trimmed by 590,000 metric tons to 16.47 million metric tons (yellow bar), a six-year low. Earlier this year, the government approved a target of 20.75 mmt for 2016/17 (orange bar). (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

The impacts of two consecutive droughts were perhaps more challenging than expected for India's pulse crop. On Tuesday, India's government released that country's 4th Advance Estimates which saw that country's pulse production potential for 2015/16 trimmed once again. Today's 4th Advance Estimate was reported at 16.47 million metric tons, down from the 3rd Advance Estimate released on May 9 of 17.06 mmt and the 2nd Advance Estimate released on Feb. 15 at 17.33 mmt. The 2014/15 final estimate is estimated at 17.15 mmt, while 2015/16 pulse production is the lowest seen in six years.

Total foodgrains production in the country was pegged at 252.22 mmt in 2015/16, just slightly higher than the 252.02 mmt produced in 2014/15.

India's government has made a bold estimate of 20.75 mmt production for the current 2016/17 crop year, as indicated by the orange bar on the attached chart. Friday's weekly planting report released by India's government indicated that the planting of the total summer, or kharif, crop was 6.3% ahead of last year as of July 29, while planting of pulses is reported to be 41% higher than the same period in 2015 at 27.3 million acres. Note that approximately 31% to 33% of total pulses are produced in the summer crop.

The current monsoon season, described as India's "agricultural lifeline", disappointed in June, but was 9.8% above normal in July. On Monday, the India Meteorological Department estimated that the final two months of the 2016 event, August and September, will see the monsoon deliver 107% of the long-term average precipitation, while the four-month event is expected to result in 106% of the long-term average.

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