Canada Markets

Canada's wheat export potential has been viewed as a moving target in Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's monthly supply and demand data, starting the year at 17.7 million metric tonnes (wheat excluding durum), bumped to 18 mmt, then 18.5 mmt, 18 mmt and most recently 18.2 mmt as reported in December. This volume is only slightly below the 18.401 mmt shipped in the 2013/14 crop year.

As of week 23 data, a total of 7.2918 mmt of wheat has been shipped through licensed facilities. While this volume is 5.3% above the volume shipped as of the same week last year, the industry is struggling to ship the weekly volumes needed to stay on track to achieve the 18.2 mmt export target. This can be seen on the attached chart, with the weekly shipments or green bars failing to reach the blue line, which represents the weekly volume needed to stay on track, as measured against the primary vertical axis on the left.

At the same time, the cumulative volume of 7.291 mmt is approximately 758,000 mt shy of the cumulative volume needed to meet the annual target, as seen on the chart with the red line, or actual shipments, falling below the black line or steady pace needed to achieve the target.

Note that this analysis does not factor exports of flour or shipments to the U.S. through unlicensed facilities. As of the end of October, wheat exports through unlicensed facilities totaled 297,043 mt, almost 100,000 mt/month and 10.6% above the year-ago pace which will off-set the shortfall through the licensed system.

DTN's current 360 Poll asks how you view the year ahead and how it will impact your operation. You can respond on the 360 Poll found in the lower right of your DTN Home Page.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

© Copyright 2015 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.