Canada Markets

The five-year seasonal high is just one signal that is followed by DTN in the construction of our canola strategies. As seen on the attached graphic, the seasonal high reached on average over the past five years occurred in the last week of May and again in the third week of June at 105% of the seasonal index.

The five-year seasonal index (blue line) would then indicate a slide from the third week in June, or the current week, to the seasonal low reached in the fourth week in September at roughly 95% of the seasonal index.

The red line indicates that what is likely the seasonal high was reached two to four weeks early this spring, when the weekly close in the front-month contract was hovering just below $500 per metric tonne. While the seasonality is just one indicator, the move from the five-year high in late June to the seasonal low in September does not present a supportive view for price direction over the summer.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES/)

© Copyright 2014 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.