Canada Markets

While the bulk of the focus on the U.S. wheat crop tends to be placed on the hard red winter crop, which is the largest wheat crop grown in the U.S., challenges in the northern states where the spring wheat crop is grown is also making news and providing lift to new-crop futures. As of Thursday, the December hard red winter future has gained 39 1/2 cents this week, while the December hard red spring wheat contract has gained 29 3/4 cents.

As seen on the attached chart, the fastest seeding progress reached was last year, as shown by the brown line on the left. As of the latest Crop Progress report which included results up to April 28, just 2% of the North Dakota crop had been seeded this spring, as compared to 63% planted on the same date last year. This year's progress is marked on the chart by the short red line near the x-axis, with no progress reported as of the April 21 report and 2% of the acres planted as of April 28.

The slowest pace realized in the past few years was in 2011, as shown by the green line on the right-hand side of the chart. As of May 1, 2011, only 1% of the crop had been seeded. Producers in many areas of Saskatchewan and Manitoba will remember well the challenges faced in this growing season.

In the 2008-2012 period, North Dakota seeded an average of 47.1% of the United States spring wheat crop. This equaled 6.21 million acres on average. Using USDA data and correcting for acres harvested, North Dakota yields ranged from 30.5 bu./acre to 46 bu./acre over this period. The lowest yield of 30.5 bu./acre was realized in 2011. While this was the year with the slowest seeding pace of the five years, both seeding operations as well as crop development were severely challenged by excess moisture.

The highest yield reached in the five years was 46 bu./acre which was harvested in 2009. 2009 is represented by the light blue line on the chart, which was the second slowest seeding pace in the five-year period, next to 2011. It's interesting to note that the two years that led to the slowest seeding paces resulted in 1) the highest average yield of the past five years and 2) the lowest average yield in the past five years. In fact, the chart indicates the two years started at similar times and on the same course for a short period of time.

The second highest yield of 45 bu./acre was reached in 2012, which was the crop that was planted at the fastest pace. 2010 saw an average yield of 44 bu./acre, while 2008's average yield was 38.5%, which happened to be the second-fastest pace of planting, as shown by the gold line just behind the pace of 2012.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@telventdtn.com

(AG)

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