An Urban's Rural View

In most recent years China has been the largest importer of U.S. agricultural products. Japan has ranked in the top five or six. What do you think would happen to their imports of our agricultural products if they went to war with each other?

Until recently, that would have been an academic question. Japan and China weren't going to go to war, end of discussion. War still isn't the most likely outcome. But in the last five months the two countries have come dangerously close to the brink of battle. A long-standing dispute over three islands and two rocks dividing the Pacific Ocean from the East China Sea has escalated.

Japan has controlled the islands, which it calls the Senkakus and China the Diaoyus, for several decades, more than a century depending on how you calculate it. China has long claimed the islands and is challenging Japan's control. It has sent boats and planes into areas Japan considers part of its territory. Japan has tried to chase them away.

In recent weeks the two countries have scrambled fighter jets against each other. Now Japan has accused China's navy of locking fire-control radar on a Japanese naval vessel and a Japanese military helicopter, a serious provocation if true. Nationalistic sentiment runs high in both countries. One Chinese newspaper has warned that China must "prepare for the worst."

Unfortunately, the "worst" would be a war that sucked us in. If war broke out, the U.S. would have more serious worries than agricultural exports. The U.S. is Japan's military ally. Our treaty with Japan promises we will defend Japan if is attacked.

A war with China would have unthinkable consequences for us, for China, for Japan, for world trade and the world economy, and yes for U.S. ag exports. Our diplomats are imploring Japan to exercise restraint and calling for cooler heads to prevail on both sides.

The core issue is intractable. The islands aren't intrinsically valuable but there may be oil nearby and there's intense national pride at stake. Japan can't just give back the islands, which seems to be the only thing that would make China happy. China can't back down from its claims.

Both sides cite history for their claims. Both sides have stoked nationalistic feelings to deflect from public discontent over domestic concerns and thus share blame for how the long-standing dispute has spun nearly out of control.

Even though war is in neither side's interests, the competitive scrambling of jets and the engaging of fire-control radar raises the risk that war could break out by mistake. During the cold war, the U.S. and the Soviet Union had rules of engagement for their military forces designed to prevent mistakes from happening. It would be a good first step for Japan and China to negotiate similar rules.

Urban Lehner
urbanity@hotmail.com