Ag Weather Forum

For much of the central and eastern United States, the 2025 late-spring and summer period has brought above- to much-above-normal rainfall. Condition ratings for row crops reflect that, of course. The U.S. corn crop was rated 74% good to excellent for the week ending July 20, 2025 -- its highest rating for the date in almost 10 years, since 2016; and the nation's top-producing corn state, Iowa, sported a good-to-excellent rating total of 86%.

That precipitation bounty is reflected in the latest Seasonal Drought Outlook from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The outlook covers the time frame from late July all the way through the end of October. And this outlook is for mainly drought-free conditions for the central and eastern U.S. Dryness now in portions of the Midwest, mainly in the area around the southern end of Lake Michigan, is projected to be removed during this time. And, east of the Rocky Mountains, the only areas where drought is either expected to continue or to develop are in northern Montana, northern North Dakota, central and parts of western South Dakota, southeastern Wyoming, western and central Nebraska, northern Kansas, and south Texas.

If this projection verifies, this upcoming fall will have a much different look to it than we saw during fall of 2024. The U.S. Drought Monitor for the final week of October 2024 showed drought-free conditions in effect only in the Florida peninsula, the southern Appalachians (following heavy rain and flooding due to remnants of Hurricane Helene), the northern Delta, isolated sectors of the far northern and the south-central Plains, and in the interior Northeast. Elsewhere east of the Rockies, dryness and drought were dominant, especially in the upper Ohio Valley with exceptional drought (D4) in effect; and in the northwestern and southeastern Plains, where extreme drought (D3) covered the regions.

Pacific Ocean features ahead of the 2025 fall season appear to be opposite the Pacific setup ahead of the 2018 fall season -- the last time that drought conditions were as minimal in the primary U.S. crop areas as are suggested this year. Back in 2018, an El Nino warm-water event was developing in the equatorial Pacific. This year, the Pacific forecast is for the equator-region waters to either be on the cool side of neutral or for a weak La Nina to form during this fall into winter.

The time frame from late July to late October covers 15 weeks -- more than three months. That's a lot of time for things to change in drought development. But, right now, the drought outlook supports ideas that corn yields at harvest this year could indeed reach new records.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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